Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Aug 30, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $1.7M

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

Q: How did 'US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Aug 30, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · AUG 30

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (4 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

0 of 5 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	88c	72%
Grok Contrarian	???	62c	28%
Gemini Flash	YES	92c	90%
Kimi Macro	YES	88c	90%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 86c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 71c–86c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$5.1K	+4%
This Market Entered at 86c → now 50c (+4%), $5.1K on YES Activity · 1 event · Aug 28 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 28BUYYES86+$4,850$4,850 Realized— Unrealized+$215 Total Profit+$215 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1250) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$4.5K	+27%
This Market Entered at 71c → now 50c (+27%), $4.5K on YES Activity · 1 event · Aug 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 19BUYYES71+$3,533$3,533 Realized— Unrealized+$942 Total Profit+$942 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1044) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 90 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$9,540 on $9.5K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	90c	$1.7M	0c
AI Consensus	86c	—	× missed

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