AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 80c |
60%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 51c |
2%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 72c |
60%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 72c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 35c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 62c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 56c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 61c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Despite NO being the dominant side by volume, smart money accumulated YES at deep discounts (20-32c) before the rerate to 56c — a classic early-positioning signal. The late NO entries at market price suggest reactive fade rather than conviction, tilting the structural read toward a meeting materializing before April 28.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | YES | $3.3K | +170% | |
| 0x5188..04 | MM | NO | $2.5K | -18% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $2.1K | +93% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$3,374 on $7.8K capital deployed (avg -43.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 54c | $1.8M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 61c | — | × missed |