AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 7 of 8 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 17c |
66%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 16c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 20c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 16c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 20c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $23K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 85c–89c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 +61% | MM | NO | $15.0K | +10% | |
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $6.1K | +3% | |
| 0xde7b..4b +115% | MM | YES | $2.0K | -76% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,260 on $23.1K capital deployed (avg +5.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $4.3M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 20c | — | ✓ matched |