Geopolitics

Resolves: May 2026 21 days left Volume: $6.6M

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 54% YES on Polymarket with $6.6M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 10 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 60c YES. 3 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

YES

54c

46c

Prediction markets put the probability at 54%: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (54% YES, 46% NO). US, Iran ‘getting close’ to agreeing deal to end war after 67 days.

Price has been stable at 54% since 2026-05-07

Traded on Polymarket — $6.6M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $6.6M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 54c YES.

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Last updated: May 08, 2026, 22:06 UTC

Smart money signal: 10 tracked wallets positioned YES. Backed by $6.6M in trading volume.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 54c

6-point gap between model (60c) and market (54c) supports YES. BUY YES at 54c — models see 6c of upside.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

Models Are Divided on This Market

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	YES	66c	—
MATH Compound Signal	YES	54c	—
AI DeepSeek Quant	???	40c	35%
AI Grok Contrarian	NO	65c	70%
AI Gemini Flash	???	55c	65%
AI Kimi Macro	YES	60c	70%

3 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (54–66c vs 54c). Kimi Macro leads with 70% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 60c — market prices it at 54c. 6-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 35c — Despite the 54% YES price and 60% mathematical consensus, tail risks like sudden geopolitical escalations or domestic political shifts in...

8 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 10 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 8 market makers are providing $111K in liquidity, primarily on YES. All 1 positioned YES — unanimous.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xb8e6..67	Smart	YES	$2.0K	+6%
This Market Entered at 50c → now 54c (+6%), $2.0K on YES Activity · 3 events · Apr 13 → May 05 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 13BUYYES39+$121$121 Apr 24BUYYES53+$1,596$1,760 May 05BUYYES41+$172$1,534 Realized— Unrealized+$112 Total Profit+$112 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1598 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$59.6K	+5%
This Market Entered at 52c → now 54c (+5%), $59.6K on YES Activity · 6 events · Apr 16 → May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 16BUYYES68+$8,160$8,161 Apr 17SELLYES76−$9,212$1 Apr 20BUYYES69+$6,238$6,239 Apr 24BUYYES52+$7,073$11,789 May 06BUYYES46+$25,385$35,798 May 07BUYYES50+$17,041$56,114 Realized+$1,052 Unrealized+$1,949 Total Profit+$3,002 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1774) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$12.3K	+29%
This Market Entered at 34c → now 46c (+29%), $12.3K on NO Activity · 5 events · Apr 16 → Apr 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 16BUYNO30+$100$100 Apr 17BUYNO32+$715$822 Apr 18BUYNO34+$2,843$3,716 Apr 21BUYNO33+$4,410$8,050 Apr 23BUYNO43+$955$11,351 Realized— Unrealized+$3,252 Total Profit+$3,252 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1972) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc408..75	MM	YES	$10.7K	-6%
This Market Entered at 57c → now 54c (-6%), $10.7K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal May 07BUYYES57+$11,400$11,400 Realized— Unrealized−$700 Total Profit−$700 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1462) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$10.2K	+36%
This Market Entered at 27c → now 46c (+36%), $10.2K on NO Activity · 8 events · Apr 17 → Apr 26 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17BUYNO20+$2,078$2,079 Apr 18BUYNO32+$53$3,365 Apr 19BUYNO35+$327$4,032 Apr 20BUYNO30+$2,430$5,868 Apr 22BUYNO38+$102$7,575 Apr 24BUYNO47+$1,048$10,331 Apr 24SELLNO54−$107$11,872 Apr 26BUYNO48+$14$10,567 Realized+$53 Unrealized+$4,238 Total Profit+$4,291 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1334) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$8.2K	-24%
This Market Entered at 68c → now 54c (-24%), $8.2K on YES Activity · 6 events · Apr 17 → May 01 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17BUYYES72+$6,750$6,750 Apr 19BUYYES71+$2,384$9,036 Apr 21BUYYES66+$3,610$12,012 Apr 21SELLYES65−$1,577$10,250 Apr 29SELLYES41−$550$5,915 May 01BUYYES39+$377$6,003 Realized−$512 Unrealized−$2,306 Total Profit−$2,818 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1662) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90	MM	YES	$3.7K	-15%
This Market Entered at 64c → now 54c (-15%), $3.7K on YES Activity · 3 events · Apr 14 → Apr 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 14BUYYES61+$3,000$3,000 Apr 16BUYYES73+$900$4,469 Apr 17BUYYES70+$500$4,812 Realized— Unrealized−$722 Total Profit−$722 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (130) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$3.3K	+3%
This Market Entered at 52c → now 54c (+3%), $3.3K on YES Activity · 6 events · Apr 17 → May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17SELLYES80−$591$0 Apr 18BUYYES68+$679$679 Apr 19BUYYES69+$1,378$2,067 May 04BUYYES33+$1,314$2,304 May 07BUYYES57+$2,850$6,830 May 07SELLYES55−$2,733$3,816 Realized+$137 Unrealized+$98 Total Profit+$235 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1212) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	NO	$3.1K	+40%
This Market Entered at 33c → now 46c (+40%), $3.1K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 16 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 16BUYNO33+$2,233$2,233 Realized— Unrealized+$890 Total Profit+$890 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (724) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeec5..fe	Retail	YES	$1.3K	-26%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 54c (-26%), $1.3K on YES Activity · 3 events · Apr 17 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17BUYYES71+$1,736$1,736 May 07BUYYES59+$226$1,673 May 08SELLYES53−$256$1,246 Realized−$78 Unrealized−$369 Total Profit−$448 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1588 trades).

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 50c–69c, NO wallets at 27c–34c. At current price 54c, all NO holders are profitable vs 43% of YES holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

43% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 54c YES — $6.6M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 54c with $6.6M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 60c. 6-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	54c	$6.6M
Our Model	60c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 54% YES with $6.6M in total volume.

Where can I bet on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 10 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 60c YES. 3 models agree on direction.