Geopolitics

Resolves: May 2026 5 days left Volume: $9.9M

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 18% YES on Polymarket with $9.9M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 8 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 24c YES. 6 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

82c

YES

18c

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES). US, Iran ‘getting close’ to agreeing deal to end war after 67 days.

Price has been stable at 18% since 2026-05-07

Traded on Polymarket — $9.9M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $9.9M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 18c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: May 08, 2026, 22:06 UTC

On this market: 6/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

STRONG OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 82c

6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 24c vs market 18c. Caution: 1 tier-1 wallet positioned YES, opposing model consensus.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

6 of 7 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	NO	71c	—
MATH PIN Model	NO	69c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	79c	—
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	82c	72%
AI Grok Contrarian	YES	35c	70%
AI Gemini Flash	NO	75c	65%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	82c	73%

6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (69–82c vs 82c). Kimi Macro leads with 73% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 76c — market prices it at 82c. 6-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 35c — Despite the market's low 18% YES price and mathematical consensus of 27%, the presence of a Tier-1 wallet with 80%+ historical accuracy b...

8 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 8 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 8 market makers are providing $125K in liquidity, primarily on YES. NO wallets entered between 93c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$50.9K	+34%
This Market Entered at 13c → now 18c (+34%), $50.9K on YES Activity · 4 events · Apr 30 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 30BUYYES7+$8,812$8,813 May 06BUYYES16+$9,643$29,313 May 07BUYYES16+$10,143$39,507 May 08BUYYES16+$6,714$45,360 Realized— Unrealized+$15,620 Total Profit+$15,620 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (724) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$31.1K	+16%
This Market Entered at 13c → now 18c (+16%), $31.1K on YES Activity · 5 events · May 01 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal May 01BUYYES8+$2,806$2,806 May 03BUYYES6+$1,344$3,500 May 06BUYYES16+$17,423$26,337 May 07BUYYES30+$806$51,665 May 08BUYYES16+$167$26,955 Realized— Unrealized+$8,550 Total Profit+$8,550 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1972) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x2e0b..70	MM	NO	$17.5K	-12%
This Market Entered at 93c → now 82c (-12%), $17.5K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 29BUYNO93+$19,919$19,919 Realized— Unrealized−$2,377 Total Profit−$2,377 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (682) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x44c1..c1	MM	YES	$7.8K	+190%
This Market Entered at 7c → now 18c (+190%), $7.8K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 05 → May 06 DatePositionAmountTotal May 05BUYYES7+$2,012$2,013 May 06BUYYES6+$875$2,577 Realized— Unrealized+$4,886 Total Profit+$4,886 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1710) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$6.7K	+45%
This Market Entered at 11c → now 18c (+45%), $6.7K on YES Activity · 9 events · May 01 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal May 01BUYYES7+$140$140 May 02BUYYES5+$194$299 May 03BUYYES5+$111$395 May 04BUYYES4+$155$471 May 06BUYYES11+$2,080$3,338 May 06SELLYES16−$801$4,200 May 07BUYYES16+$1,641$5,891 May 07SELLYES21−$476$7,311 May 08BUYYES17+$499$6,344 Realized+$610 Unrealized+$2,677 Total Profit+$3,287 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1212) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xfd2b..50	MM	YES	$6.4K	+7%
This Market Entered at 17c → now 18c (+7%), $6.4K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal May 07BUYYES17+$5,962$5,962 Realized— Unrealized+$431 Total Profit+$431 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (490) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x6bab..92 ★	MM	YES	$3.2K	-29%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 23c → now 18c (-29%), $3.2K on YES Activity · 3 events · May 07 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal May 07BUYYES25+$3,801$3,800 May 07SELLYES20−$1,144$1,935 May 08BUYYES19+$1,571$3,420 Realized−$268 Unrealized−$831 Total Profit−$1,099 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1718) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc408..75	MM	YES	$1.4K	+34%
This Market Entered at 9c → now 18c (+34%), $1.4K on YES Activity · 4 events · Apr 28 → May 06 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 28BUYYES9+$2,431$2,431 Apr 28SELLYES9−$1,547$884 May 06BUYYES16+$9$1,561 May 06SELLYES15−$307$1,165 Realized+$121 Unrealized+$710 Total Profit+$831 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (731) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 75 alpha wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

86% of YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 7c–23c, NO wallets at 93c. At current price 18c, 86% of YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

86% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 18c YES — $9.9M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 18c with $9.9M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 24c. 6-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	18c	$9.9M
Our Model	24c	—

Back to Market Radar

Related Markets

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 18% YES with $9.9M in total volume.

Where can I bet on US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 8 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 24c YES. 6 models agree on direction.