US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 44% YES on Polymarket with $535K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

56c

YES

44c

Prediction markets give a 44% probability to: us x iran permanent peace deal by may 31, 2026?.

Currently at 44%

Traded on Polymarket — $535K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 44c YES with $535K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 2 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

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MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 45c

Smart money entered YES at 34c–36c. 100% of YES wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 34c–36c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xe25b..1b	MM	YES	$4.0K	+24%
This Market Entered at 36c → now 44c (+24%), $4.0K on YES Track Record 9mo on platform · 1100 trades · other specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1100) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$1.2K	+31%
This Market Entered at 34c → now 44c (+31%), $1.2K on YES Track Record 21d on platform · 1066 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1066) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 34c–36c. At current price 44c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 44c YES — $535K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 44c with $535K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 44c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	44c	$535K
Our Model	44c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 44% YES with $535K in total volume.

Where can I bet on US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026??

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.