Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Currently, markets are divided (32% YES, 68% NO).

What’s Happening

The question of whether 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the fifa world cup hinges on the knockout rounds of the expanded 48-team 2026 tournament, where a record slate of elimination games raises the ceiling for shootouts. Through the quarterfinals, the standout shootout came in the Round of 16, when Switzerland eliminated Colombia at BC Place in Vancouver on July 7 after a scoreless draw, a result that carried heavy fallout when Colombia's Jaminton Campaz received death threats and the Colombian Football Federation demanded an investigation. Defending champions Argentina also flirted with the shootout column, drawing 0-0 with Colombia and needing extra time before advancing, underscoring how tight the elimination-round margins have been. [Fox News, Jul 11]

With the semifinals set for Saturday, July 11, pairing England against surprise side Norway — powered by forward Erling Haaland — and Switzerland versus Messi's Argentina in Kansas City, the remaining fixtures determine whether the market clears the five-shootout threshold. The current standings of decided shootouts sit below the pace needed, meaning the odds require multiple upcoming knockout ties to stay level through 120 minutes. Recent form points to tight, low-scoring defensive matchups: Spain's Unai Simon kept a clean sheet for a tournament-record 650 minutes before Belgium's Charles De Ketelaere equalized in the quarterfinals, a record shutout streak illustrating how few goals separate these teams. [FOX Sports, Jul 10]

Historically, whether 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the fifa world cup is rare but not unprecedented, with the 2022 edition — decided when Gonzalo Montiel converted the winning penalty for Argentina over France in the final — among tournaments that saw multiple shootouts. The 2026 record slate of knockout games mathematically favors more shootouts, but each requires a stalemate through extra time, a demanding condition. With only the semifinals, third-place match, and final remaining, the count needs a near-clean sweep of drawn eliminators to reach five, keeping the threshold a genuine long shot as the tournament closes. [Yahoo Sports, Jul 11]

Traded on Polymarket — $53K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($53K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 32c YES.