AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
74%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | ??? | 18c |
42%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 10c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
78%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet holds NO entries at 94c, indicating a high-conviction, low-risk position that profits if the market stays below that threshold. This smart money entry signals confidence that Hamilton will not win the title, and the lack of YES entries suggests no credible counter-position is being built.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4337..82 | MM | NO | $2.2K | -1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$141 on $2.2K capital deployed (avg +6.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7c | $5.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |