Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES). How long is extra time in the World Cup? Teams will now have to play until there is a winner as the World Cup enters its knockout stage.
The knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup opened with a surge of tiebreakers, immediately putting the question of whether 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the fifa world cup in play. Through just the first four Round of 32 matches, two had already gone to spot kicks: Paraguay stunned Germany — sending goalkeeper Manuel Neuer out in what was called the biggest upset of the tournament — while Morocco edged the Netherlands in Monterrey on June 29, 2026. With the record 48-team field adding a full Round of 32 for the first time, the knockout bracket now spans 32 matches, expanding the raw pool of games that can end level. [Yahoo Sports, Jun 30]
The format matters to the odds. Under FIFA rules, knockout matches level after 90 minutes proceed to 30 minutes of extra time; if still tied, the result is settled from the penalty spot. That standing is why 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the fifa world cup carries a live-but-minority reading at roughly 26% YES versus 74% NO. Historically, shootouts have been the exception rather than the norm — the 2022 Qatar edition, a 32-team bracket, produced fewer than a handful across its knockout rounds. The wider 2026 bracket raises the ceiling, but reaching seven would still require an outlier rate of drawn matches. [USA Today, Jun 28]
The early pace is the key variable to watch. Two shootouts inside four games is a front-loaded start, and with the Round of 32, Round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final still to come, the running tally has ample fixtures left to climb. Whether 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the fifa world cup resolves YES hinges on that rate holding rather than reverting to historical norms as favorites separate from the field deeper in the draw. [The Athletic, Jun 28]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($55K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 26c YES.
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