Will Aiemann Zahabi be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 13%: Will Aiemann Zahabi be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (13% YES). Latest UFC rankings update: Aljamain Sterling inches closer to No.

What’s Happening

Aiemann Zahabi, the younger brother of renowned coach Firas Zahabi, currently holds a professional MMA record of 12-2 and is ranked No. 14 in the official UFC bantamweight division as of late April 2026. Despite a three-fight winning streak that includes a first-round knockout of Javid Basharat in March 2025, Zahabi has not yet broken into the top ten of a division currently dominated by former champion Aljamain Sterling, who just defeated Youssef Zalal at UFC Vegas 116 on April 25, 2026. Sterling’s dominant performance in his featherweight debut has reshuffled the bantamweight title picture, as he now eyes a potential super fight with featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski, leaving the 135-pound title path uncertain for contenders like Zahabi. [Yahoo Sports, Apr 28]

The prediction market currently assigns a 13% probability that Aiemann Zahabi will be the UFC bantamweight champion on December 31, 2026, reflecting the steep climb required for the Canadian fighter to capture gold within that timeframe. For context, the current champion Merab Dvalishvili (record: 19-4) has defended his belt twice since winning it in September 2024, with his most recent title defense a unanimous decision victory over Cory Sandhagen in January 2026. Zahabi’s path would likely require at least two top-five wins—potentially against ranked opponents like Marlon Vera (No. 5) or Rob Font (No. 6)—and a favorable title opportunity, a scenario that historically has taken contenders 18-24 months from outside the top ten. [The Body Lock, Apr 29]

Looking ahead, Zahabi’s next fight is expected to be booked against a top-10 opponent, with the UFC targeting a summer 2026 bout against Adrian Yanez (No. 11) or Umar Nurmagomedov (No. 8), according to multiple fight booking reports. A win there would improve his record to 13-2 and likely push him into the top ten, but he would still need a signature victory over a top-five gatekeeper—such as Pedro Munhoz or Song Yadong—to enter title contention. The bantamweight division’s current standings show Dvalishvili scheduled to defend against Sean O’Malley (No. 2) at UFC 310 in October 2026, meaning the title picture may not clear for a new challenger until early 2027 at the earliest. [UFC.com, Apr 26]

Traded on Polymarket — $61K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($61K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 13c YES.