Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

Prediction markets put the probability at 54%: Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup. Currently, markets are divided (54% YES, 46% NO). — This was not the first time Argentina had come to the brink in this FIFA World Cup.

What’s Happening

Argentina reached the World Cup semifinals after edging Switzerland 2-1 in the Kansas City quarterfinal on Saturday, July 11, 2026, but the manner of the win explains why the odds on whether Argentina be eliminated in the semifinals of the world cup sit near a coin flip at 54% YES. The defending champions were trapped in a 1-1 deadlock deep into the second half and extra time, even after Switzerland's Breel Embolo was sent off with a red card, before Julián Álvarez took the decisive risk that sealed passage. It marked the third straight knockout scare for Lionel Messi and the Albiceleste, who also needed extra time to survive Cape Verde in the Round of 16. [NPR, Jul 11]

The semifinal record now reads Argentina vs. England, a marquee matchup that reflects the tight standings among the final four. Despite reaching the last four, Argentina's form has drawn scrutiny: three consecutive knockout games decided in extra time or by a single goal point to a defense stretched thin and an attack overly reliant on Messi and Álvarez to produce late. Alexi Lalas' semifinal power rankings placed the remaining contenders — England, Argentina, France and Spain — closely bunched, underscoring how narrow the gap has become. Whether Argentina be eliminated in the semifinals of the world cup hinges on whether their grind-it-out record holds against an England side that has advanced more comfortably. [FOX Sports, Jul 12]

Historically, Argentina's tournament pedigree favors deep runs — they enter as reigning champions from 2022 — yet defending titles at back-to-back World Cups is rare, achieved only by Italy (1934-38) and Brazil (1958-62). The other bracket pits France against Spain, with the winner positioned as a potential final opponent. For the question of whether Argentina be eliminated in the semifinals of the world cup, the key variables are Messi's fitness at 39, accumulated fatigue from three extra-time battles, and England's fresher legs. Buenos Aires erupted in celebration after the quarterfinal, but the standings suggest the toughest test still lies ahead. [KUNC, Jul 12]

Traded on Polymarket — $55K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($55K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 54c YES.