Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?'?

As of June 2026, prediction markets price this at 28% YES on Polymarket with $1.0M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

72c

YES

28c

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES).

Currently at 28%

Traded on Polymarket — $1.0M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.0M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 28c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

$1.0M traded on this market. OddsShift tracks 1 smart wallets and runs 5 AI models to find where the market is wrong.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 72c

Smart money entered NO at 72c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 72c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x4337..82	MM	NO	$2.2K	+1%
This Market Entered at 72c → now 72c (+1%), $2.2K on NO Activity · 3 events · Feb 20 → Apr 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Feb 20BUYNO62+$469$469 Apr 08BUYNO65+$26$518 Apr 27BUYNO75+$1,683$2,280 Realized— Unrealized+$26 Total Profit+$26 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (918) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 72c. At current price 28c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 2 Cents

Polymarket prices YES at 28c while Kalshi has it at 30c — a 2-cent gap within normal range. Our model estimates fair value at 28c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	28c	$1.0M
Kalshi	30c	—
Our Model	28c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

As of June 2026, Polymarket prices this at 28% YES with $1.0M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.