AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (6 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 22c |
61%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 18c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 16c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 16c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is classified as smart money. All 1 positioned NO — unanimous.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xdcc9..34 | Smart | NO | $1.5K | -28% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,540 on $1.5K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 29c | $1.5M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 16c | — | × missed |