Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Despite a $2 trillion crypto market downturn, with Bitcoin falling to $60,000, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink remains "very bullish" for the next 12 months.

What’s Happening

Bitcoin has retreated sharply from its cycle highs, sliding to roughly $60,000 amid a broader $2 trillion crypto market downturn, leaving its market capitalization near $1.29 trillion. For a bitcoin dip to $35,000 to register, the asset would need to shed roughly another 42% from current levels — a move that would breach every major support band established through the post-halving accumulation phase. Despite the pullback, spot demand from the fleet of bitcoin exchange-traded funds has continued to anchor prices, with one closely-watched analyst noting BTC is increasingly poised to "mirror" gold's long history of "triumph and pain." [Forbes, Jul 19]

Sentiment among institutional allocators remains firmly skewed to the upside, working against the bearish scenario. BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink — head of the world's largest asset manager — reiterated on July 17 that he is "very bullish" on the market over the next 12 months, even after the recent drawdown to $60,000. Separate forecasts circulating this week have traders openly debating whether Bitcoin could eventually reach $200,000 in the next major cycle, a framing that leaves little room in the consensus narrative for a bitcoin dip to $35,000. ETF inflows and the fixed post-halving supply schedule remain the structural pillars underpinning that optimism. [Forbes, Jul 17]

Two swing factors could still pressure prices toward the $35,000 threshold before December 31, 2026: regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical shock. The CLARITY Act, which passed the House of Representatives last July to establish a federal framework for digital assets, faces a contested path forward, injecting policy risk into the market. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions — including reported Iranian attacks damaging power units in Kuwait on July 17 — have raised concerns over Gulf infrastructure stability and broader risk-asset appetite. A sustained flight from risk paired with a stalled regulatory framework would be the most plausible catalyst path for a deeper correction into year-end. [Crypto Briefing, Jul 17]

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