As of September 6, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?” at 5% YES with $343K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: will china blockade taiwan in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 9c vs market 5c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 95c | 82% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 18c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 80% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 78% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–97c vs 95c). Claude Analysis leads with 82% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 91c — market prices it at 95c. 4-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet holds only NO positions, entered at 92c, signaling a high-confidence bet against a 2026 blockade. This smart money entry at near-certainty levels implies they view the YES scenario as extremely unlikely, and their lack of YES exposure suggests no hedging interest, reinforcing bearish sentiment on blockade risk.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $12.1K | +3% |
All tracked YES positions are underwater, with the market pricing a 5% chance of blockade, while NO positions are uniformly profitable, having entered near 92c. This suggests NO holders are sitting on significant unrealized gains, creating potential selling pressure that could support YES prices if profit-taking occurs, though the dominant NO side indicates strong conviction against the event.
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $343K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 9c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $343K |
| Our Model | 9c | — |