Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Technical analyst Ted Pillows shared on X that Ethereum has swept equal lows while displaying RSI bullish divergence.

What’s Happening

Ethereum's price action in August has been defined by a sharp rebound from late-July lows, with the asset trading near $1,850 after a 30% rally off its June bottom, according to technical analysis shared by trader Ted Pillows. That analyst noted that Ethereum swept equal lows while displaying RSI bullish divergence, suggesting a reasonable probability that a bottom is in place — yet he explicitly cautioned about a potential ethereum dip to $1,600 in August before any sustained reversal occurs. The $1,600–$1,700 zone remains the last major support floor beneath current prices, with the $1,540 base as the final stop if that level breaks, a scenario that would invalidate the entire recent uptrend as a bull trap [Blockonomi, Aug 12].

The market's current 10% probability of an ethereum dip to $1,600 in August reflects a broader sentiment shift after June's sell-off erased the May consolidation between $2,200–$2,400. That decline broke through every major support level, including the critical $1,600 floor, as spot ETH ETFs recorded net outflows through the entire month and active addresses on the network fell 46% from February's peak. However, the subsequent recovery has been driven by a combination of short-covering and fresh accumulation, with the July 27–30 US macro event cluster — including CPI data released on August 12 — now serving as the key catalyst for whether the rally extends or reverses [Cryptopolitan, Aug 13].

Looking ahead, the immediate risk to the downside centers on whether Ethereum can hold above the $1,800 psychological level, with the $1,600 support zone acting as the primary line of defense against a deeper correction. Historical context from August 2023 shows Ethereum trading at $1,850 under similar pressure, when a DeFi exploit in Curve dragged prices lower despite broader market stability — a reminder that protocol-specific shocks can trigger sharp moves independent of macro conditions. For August 2026, price forecasts from Cryptopolitan project a potential low of $1,851.65 and an average price of $2,042.86, suggesting that while the ethereum dip to $1,600 in August is not the base case, it remains a plausible tail risk if ETF outflows resume or macro data disappoints [CNBC, Aug 01].

Traded on Polymarket — $70K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($70K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 10c YES.