AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | ??? | 23c |
38%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 10c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
72%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 13c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 98c, signaling strong conviction that Ethereum will not reach $3,200 in September. However, entering NO at 98c offers minimal upside (2c max) against substantial downside, which is a low-reward, high-risk posture rather than a high-conviction smart-money signal. This positioning suggests the wallet expects the market to stay below the strike, but its extreme entry price limits the informational value about directional momentum.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $1.2K | -3% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$30 on $1.2K capital deployed (avg +2.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $776.1K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 13c | — | ✓ matched |