Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $314.6K

Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Q: How did 'Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (3 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

87c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

3 of 6 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	31c	38%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	7c	65%
Grok Contrarian	NO	10c	70%
Gemini Flash	???	45c	60%
Kimi Macro	YES	70c	65%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 44c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 12c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$2.0K	-41%
This Market Entered at 12c → now 50c (-41%), $2.0K on YES Track Record 9d on platform · 1958 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1958) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,951 on $2.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	7c	$314.6K	0c
AI Consensus	44c	—	✓ matched

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