Prediction markets put the probability at 35%: Will Iran close its airspace by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (35% YES, 65% NO). The airspace around the country’s main airfield in Tehran was closed after the Israeli attack.
The U.S. and Iran are expected to finalize a ceasefire extension on Sunday, June 14, according to President Donald Trump, though an Iranian official told reporters no agreement will be signed that day. The diplomatic push follows a violent week: Israel launched airstrikes on central and western Iran on June 8 in response to Iranian missile fire, prompting Tehran to close airspace around Imam Khomeini International Airport, the country's main airfield. On June 10, Iran's joint military command announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after fresh U.S. strikes, escalating fears the region could slide back into open war. [Washington Post, Jun 13]
Military hawks in Washington argue that U.S. Central Command's downing of two Iranian attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz on June 12 demonstrates Tehran's appetite for confrontation and increases the probability Iran will close its airspace by December 31 as part of a wider deterrent posture. Regional analysts counter that the ceasefire framework under discussion by Trump and Iranian negotiators, combined with the economic cost of severed commercial overflight revenue, gives Tehran strong incentive to keep its skies formally open even during selective restrictions around the capital. The White House has not publicly responded to questions about the June 8 Israeli operation. [Politico, Jun 8]
The structural factor most likely to determine resolution is whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holds through the autumn. Aviation industry data underscores the stakes: Azeraeronavigation Air Traffic Department reported a fourfold increase in overflight volumes over the past five years as carriers reroute around conflict zones, signaling that partial closures already exist in practice. Whether Tehran takes the formal step to close its airspace by December 31 depends on whether Israeli strikes resume, whether the Strait of Hormuz closure persists, and whether the truce mediated in mid-June proves durable through year-end. [Aviation Week, Jun 10]
Polymarket prices this at 35c YES with $144K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
Smart money positioned NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $1.3K | -39% |
YES wallets entered between 60c. At current price 35c, none of the NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.
Polymarket prices YES at 35c with $144K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 35c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 35c | $144K |
| Our Model | 35c | — |