AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 31c |
38%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 14c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 12c |
78%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 82c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 28c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money's lone tracked entry at 74c on NO signals high conviction that Iran will keep airspace open through June 30, a bet placed when YES was implicitly trading near 26c. With spot now compressed to 18c, the wallet has been validated by the move and shows no urgency to exit, reinforcing that informed positioning continues to lean against closure.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $3.8K | -5% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $2.0K | +2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$905 on $5.7K capital deployed (avg +15.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 90c | $3.3M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 28c | — | × missed |