AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 72c |
65%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 65c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 65c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 35c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet positioned exclusively NO at 26c, treating a Kushner-Iran meeting by April 30 as a near-certain non-event. Smart money entry well above current price confirms directional conviction that diplomatic noise won't materialize into a confirmed meeting in the remaining window.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $2.0K | +179% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$5,742 on $2.0K capital deployed (avg +287.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $243.8K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 35c | — | ✓ matched |