Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $687.1K

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Q: How did 'Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (4 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 7 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	27c	46%
Claude Analysis	NO	6c	88%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	85%
Grok Contrarian	YES	15c	60%
Gemini Flash	NO	15c	75%
Kimi Macro	NO	10c	90%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 12c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is 100% positioned on NO with entries averaging well above current price, indicating high-conviction structural bets against a Vance-Iran meeting by April 30. The complete absence of YES accumulation from tracked wallets confirms institutional consensus that diplomatic engagement is off the table within the deadline.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x5188..04	MM	NO	$3.4K	+487%
This Market Entered at 16c → now 50c (+487%), $3.4K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 19BUYNO16+$575$575 Realized— Unrealized+$2,802 Total Profit+$2,802 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1586) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$2.5K	+207%
This Market Entered at 31c → now 50c (+207%), $2.5K on NO Activity · 2 events · Apr 19 → Apr 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 19BUYNO34+$787$787 Apr 20BUYNO13+$46$336 Realized— Unrealized+$1,632 Total Profit+$1,632 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1680) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x8ebf..ce	MM	NO	$1.6K	+268%
This Market Entered at 22c → now 50c (+268%), $1.6K on NO Activity · 2 events · Apr 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 19BUYNO22+$449$449 Apr 19SELLNO25−$94$422 Realized+$12 Unrealized+$1,191 Total Profit+$1,203 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1242) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$29,069 on $7.4K capital deployed (avg +392.8%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	8c	$687.1K	0c
AI Consensus	12c	—	✓ matched

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