Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Home » MMA News » Khamzat Chimaev » VIDEO | Khamzat Chimaev shares never-before-seen Sean Strickland….
At UFC 328 on May 9, 2026, at Prudential Center in Newark, Sean Strickland defeated Khamzat Chimaev by split decision (48-47, 47-48, 48-47) to reclaim the UFC middleweight championship. The defeat ended Chimaev's perfect record, dropping him to 15-1 with 12 finishes. Chimaev had captured the title nine months earlier with a dominant win over Dricus du Plessis in Chicago. The outcome reframes the question of whether khamzat chimaev ufc middleweight champion on december 31, 2026 will hold — a status he no longer carries entering the second half of the year. [NY Post, May 10]
The loss matched a recurring pattern at 185 pounds: Strickland's 2023 upset of Israel Adesanya and du Plessis's earlier stumble represent a "tenth fight" inflection Chimaev replicated in his own tenth UFC appearance. The Chechen waited nearly two minutes into Round 2 before his first takedown attempt, which ended with Strickland briefly on top — a rare reversal. Pre-fight commentary from Joe Rogan had flagged Strickland's elusive striking, calling him "one of the hardest guys to hit in the sport," as a credible threat to the previously unbeaten champion. Strickland became a two-time middleweight champion with the victory. [Bloody Elbow, May 10]
With Strickland holding the belt, the path for khamzat chimaev ufc middleweight champion on december 31, 2026 narrows to a successful rematch within roughly seven months. The UFC has not announced Strickland's next title defense, and championship rematches typically require a 4-6 month buildup, leaving a tight calendar window before year-end. The split-decision margin — one judge scored 48-47 for Chimaev — preserves the case for an immediate rematch, though matchmaking will weigh contenders including Nassourdine Imavov. Chimaev would need both the booking and the win to reclaim the title by December 31. [UFC.com, May 10]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($56K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 10c YES.
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