Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Lionel Messi odds, picks, predictions, player props: Best bets for Argentina vs.
Defending champions Argentina have reached a second consecutive World Cup final, and the question of whether Lionel Messi will score 10+ goals during the FIFA World Cup now hinges on a single remaining fixture. Across the knockout rounds Messi has contributed directly to Argentina's scoring without piling up a double-digit tally: he netted the tying goal in a wild 3-2 comeback over Egypt in the Round of 16 on July 7, then registered an assist as his scoring streak ended in the quarterfinal win over Switzerland in Kansas City on July 11. With his running total sitting well short of ten, the odds of clearing that mark in one final have narrowed sharply. [AP News, Jul 12]
Recent form shows Messi as a creator as much as a finisher. Analysts noted he had multiple goals in two of his last four matches entering the Switzerland tie, keeping him a popular player-prop option, yet Argentina's balanced attack has spread the scoring load — Lautaro Martinez struck in the semifinal against England on July 15, a match framed as a Messi-versus-Jude Bellingham duel. To make Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the FIFA World Cup a reality, he would need a historic final haul, given his record through six-plus matches leaves a wide gap to close. [CBS Sports, Jul 11]
Historically, the standings for single-tournament scoring underline the challenge: no player has reached 10 goals at a World Cup since Just Fontaine's 13 in 1958, and modern Golden Boot totals typically land near 6-8. That precedent frames why the market prices a Messi 10+ finish at long odds heading into the final. What comes next is decisive — Argentina's title match closes the tournament, meaning whether Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the FIFA World Cup resolves on that 90-minute result, with the defending champions chasing back-to-back crowns. [Chicago Tribune, Jul 16]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($59K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 10c YES.
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