AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 12c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned NO at 79c months ago and has ridden the field-vs-Verstappen consensus to near-resolution; the 79c entry signals conviction that the 2026 title was a multi-driver race from the start, not a Verstappen lock. At 6c YES, the wallet's behavior says the trade is effectively over — there is no fresh directional signal here, only confirmation that the original NO thesis played out.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x9b97..12 | MM | NO | $3.7K | +20% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$980 on $3.7K capital deployed (avg +26.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $6.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 12c | — | ✓ matched |