AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 32c |
36%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
88%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 12c |
78%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 5c |
95%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
92%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 83c, signaling smart-money conviction that the Paramount-Warner Bros. deal will not close by end-2026. With no YES entries recorded, there is no countervailing informed flow to challenge the bearish thesis, reinforcing the dominant NO side. This lone NO entry at 83c implies the wallet sees meaningful regulatory or structural hurdles to completion.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 | MM | NO | $1.0K | -11% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,026 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 26c | $183.7K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | × missed |