As of September 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?” at 6% YES with $108K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). Shohei Ohtani Is Chasing the Greatest Year Baseball Has Ever Seen.
Shohei Ohtani enters the 2026 MLB season as the overwhelming favorite to capture his third consecutive National League MVP Award, with the market currently pricing his chances at 45% YES against a 55% NO outcome. The Los Angeles Dodgers superstar has already secured the NL MVP in both 2024 and 2025, and a third straight win would place him in rarefied air alongside only Barry Bonds (2001-2004) and Mike Trout (2014-2016 AL) as the only players in MLB history to three-peat as MVP. According to CBS Sports' 2026 expert predictions, Ohtani "ran away with it" in the National League last season, while Aaron Judge narrowly edged Cal Raleigh for the AL honor — a clear indication of the voting gap Ohtani has established in his current league. [CBS Sports, Mar 25]
The 55% NO probability reflects legitimate concerns about Ohtani's unprecedented workload and the historical difficulty of a three-peat, but his current trajectory suggests the market may be undervaluing his record-setting pace. Bleacher Report noted in early March that Ohtani is "chasing the greatest year baseball has ever seen," though his 2026 campaign functionally began in Tokyo with Japan's World Baseball Classic opener — notably without him pitching, as he focuses on his Cy Young pursuit. The Sporting News reported on June 3, 2026 that Ohtani remains "the odds-on favorite to win his fourth straight (fifth overall) MVP award," while also leading the field for the NL Cy Young — a dual-threat dominance that has never been achieved simultaneously in the modern era. His two-time World Series champion status with the Dodgers further bolsters his narrative case with voters. [Bleacher Report, Mar 06]
What matters most for the shohei ohtani national league mvp award market is whether he can maintain his historic production through the second half. MLB.com noted in November 2025 that a fourth career MVP would make Ohtani the player with the most such awards in history among those not associated with banned substances — a direct reference to Bonds' asterisked totals. The Sporting News' preseason prediction of an Ohtani three-peat places him in "historic company," but the 45% YES price suggests the market is pricing in meaningful regression risk, particularly given his reduced pitching role in the WBC and the Dodgers' likely load-management approach. With Philadelphia's Bryce Harper and Atlanta's Ronald Acuña Jr. lurking as challengers, the second-half standings and Ohtani's health will ultimately determine whether this market closes closer to even or breaks decisively toward NO. [Sporting News, Mar 25]
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