Will the New York Mets have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?

Prediction markets put the probability at 22%: Will the New York Mets have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (22% YES).

What’s Happening

The New York Mets' pursuit of the highest ABS success rate during the MLB regular season has cooled considerably since their hot start, with the club now sitting at a middling 51.7% overall success rate, ranking 20th in the majors according to ESPN's mid-August tracker. The Mets opened the season strong, posting a 63% success rate through late April alongside the Chicago Cubs and Kansas City Royals, per The Athletic's Zack Meisel, but that early efficiency has not held up. Their split is particularly telling: a solid 50.3% success rate on challenges at the plate (ranked 10th) versus a disappointing 53.2% mark on the bases (ranked 24th), revealing an inconsistency that has dragged their overall standing down the leaderboard [ESPN, Aug 12].

The current 22% probability that the New York Mets have the highest ABS success rate during the MLB regular season reflects a steep climb ahead, as the team trails the Philadelphia Phillies, who lead the league with a 56.2% overall mark, and the Yankees, who were the preseason favorite to top this category. CBS Sports' bold prediction in March specifically called for the Yankees to have the best ABS challenge success rate in baseball, citing their roster's plate discipline and behind-the-plate acumen, and that forecast has largely materialized with New York sitting at 54.5% overall (12th). The Mets' recent form offers little optimism: their August numbers show no significant upward trend, and their 53.2% success rate on non-plate challenges is among the bottom third of the league, a critical weakness given that base-running challenges often swing close games [CBS Sports, Mar 24].

Historical precedent suggests that early-season leaders rarely maintain their pace, but the Mets' current trajectory is more concerning than encouraging. Spring training data showed Philadelphia at 61% and the Cubs at 60% as the top challenge teams, while the Mets were not among the leaders, hinting that their April surge may have been an outlier. With roughly 45 games remaining in the regular season, the Mets would need to challenge at an elite 65%+ clip just to close the gap on the Phillies and Yankees, a feat no team has sustained over a full season in the ABS era. The Guardians' Davis Schneider, who leads all outfielders with a 77% success rate on 13 challenges, exemplifies the individual skill required, but the Mets lack a comparable standout, making their path to the top of the ABS standings a long shot as the season winds down [SI, Jun 23].

Traded on Polymarket — $465K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 22c YES with $465K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.