Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?'?

As of June 2026, prediction markets price this at 5% YES on Polymarket with $2.0M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

95c

YES

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

Down from 14% to 5% since 2026-04-24 (-9pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $2.0M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.0M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 5c YES.

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$2.0M traded on this market. OddsShift tracks 2 smart wallets and runs 5 AI models to find where the market is wrong.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT

HOLD

Smart money entered NO at 87c–91c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

— TARGET YIELD

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 87c–91c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x5188..04	MM	NO	$8.4K	+8%
This Market Entered at 87c → now 95c (+8%), $8.4K on NO Activity · 3 events · May 08 → May 14 DatePositionAmountTotal May 08BUYNO87+$8,561$8,561 May 14BUYNO92+$9$9,062 May 14SELLNO91−$934$8,030 Realized+$41 Unrealized+$692 Total Profit+$733 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1508) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0c0e..4e	MM	NO	$4.4K	+4%
This Market Entered at 91c → now 95c (+4%), $4.4K on NO Activity · 4 events · May 14 → Jun 24 DatePositionAmountTotal May 14BUYNO91+$40,432$40,432 May 16SELLNO94−$10,178$31,588 Jun 23SELLNO95−$20,196$11,811 Jun 24SELLNO95−$7,442$4,372 Realized+$1,560 Unrealized+$177 Total Profit+$1,736 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1396) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 87c–91c. At current price 5c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 5c YES — $2.0M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $2.0M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 5c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	5c	$2.0M
Our Model	5c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

As of June 2026, Polymarket prices this at 5% YES with $2.0M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.