Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Oct 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $7.2M

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Q: How did 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Oct 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · OCT 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 4 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	25c	50%
Claude Analysis	NO	4c	92%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	6c	85%
Kimi Macro	NO	6c	94%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money positioned exclusively on NO at near-certainty entries (87-91c), treating this as a structural fade rather than a directional bet. The absence of YES entries from tracked wallets confirms institutional consensus that no confirmation will occur by September 30. Continued drift toward 0c expected as time decay accelerates.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x5188..04	MM	NO	$8.4K	+8%
This Market Entered at 87c → now 50c (+8%), $8.4K on NO Activity · 3 events · May 08 → May 14 DatePositionAmountTotal May 08BUYNO87+$8,561$8,561 May 14BUYNO92+$9$9,062 May 14SELLNO91−$934$8,030 Realized+$41 Unrealized+$692 Total Profit+$733 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1508) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0c0e..4e	MM	NO	$4.4K	+4%
This Market Entered at 91c → now 50c (+4%), $4.4K on NO Activity · 4 events · May 14 → Jun 24 DatePositionAmountTotal May 14BUYNO91+$40,432$40,432 May 16SELLNO94−$10,178$31,588 Jun 23SELLNO95−$20,196$11,811 Jun 24SELLNO95−$7,442$4,372 Realized+$1,560 Unrealized+$177 Total Profit+$1,736 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1396) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 88 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,680 on $12.7K capital deployed (avg +13.2%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	5c	$7.2M	0c
AI Consensus	9c	—	✓ matched

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