Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES). Following the 24 June earthquakes of magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 (18:00 local time), authorities report more than 1,000 aftershocks..

What’s Happening

The question of whether there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 has drawn renewed attention after a catastrophic sequence in northern Venezuela. On 24 June 2026, twin earthquakes measuring magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 struck near the coast at around 18:00 local time, triggering more than 1,000 aftershocks in the following weeks. Urban Search and Rescue teams remained deployed alongside OCHA and United Nations partners more than a week later, as the government scaled up a multisectoral emergency response across Caracas, La Guaira and other northern towns. [ReliefWeb, Jul 07]

The human toll has climbed steadily. By 12 July 2026, the confirmed death toll from the Venezuela earthquakes had risen to 4,490, up from 3,811 reported on 8 July, when authorities also counted 16,740 injured and 17,907 people left homeless. The Venezuelan government has sought access to frozen overseas funds to finance reconstruction. Analysis of the NISAR satellite found that the June 24 events shifted the Earth's surface by up to 60 centimeters in the worst-hit coastal zones, underscoring the scale of tectonic energy released. [Reuters, Jul 12]

Whether there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 depends on the pace of seismic activity through the second half of the year. The long-run global average tracked by the USGS is roughly 15 magnitude 7.0+ events annually, meaning the 11-to-13 band sits below the historical norm. The two Venezuelan quakes already count toward the 2026 tally, and with several months remaining, the running total will determine the outcome. Any additional large ruptures along active plate boundaries in the Pacific, the Caribbean or Central Asia would push the count toward or past the upper bound of the range. [NYT, Jul 08]

Traded on Polymarket — $413K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 20c YES with $413K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.