Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 68% YES on Polymarket with $330K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

68c

32c

Prediction markets give a 68% probability to: will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21, 2026?.

Currently at 68%

Traded on Polymarket — $330K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 68c YES with $330K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

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MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 31c

Smart money entered NO at 37c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 37c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$1.8K	-15%
This Market Entered at 37c → now 31c (-15%), $1.8K on NO Track Record 13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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No Positions Are Currently in Profit

NO wallets entered at 37c. At current price 68c, none of the NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 68c YES — $330K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 68c with $330K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 68c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	68c	$330K
Our Model	68c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 68% YES with $330K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026??

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.