AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 32c |
36%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 65c |
60%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 35c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 9c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 44c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 48c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | MM | YES | $1.0K | -82% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,035 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 9c | $259.3K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 44c | — | ✓ matched |