AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 94c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 56c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 38c |
61%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 92c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 15c |
72%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 59c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money is unambiguously one-sided: all three tracked wallets are long YES with no NO entries, signaling conviction that a Fed hike by October 2026 is the base case. The wide 45c-85c entry range suggests early positioning captured the bulk of the move, with later entries at 85c still willing to pay up near the current price. This pattern of accumulation across the curve, rather than fading strength, points to continued upside pressure toward the 91c level.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Smart | YES | $7.7K | +8% | |
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | YES | $6.5K | +80% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | YES | $5.9K | +66% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$15,474 on $20.2K capital deployed (avg +76.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 92c | $1.1M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 59c | — | ✓ matched |