As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?” at 38% YES with $28.1M traded. 11 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Odds for no change sit at 53.5%, nearly matched by a 46.5% chance of a 25 bps hike, though strategists still expect steady rates through 2026.
On September 3, 2026, Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled he would support holding rates steady at the September FOMC meeting, diverging from a market that had rapidly repriced toward a hike. The question of whether there be no change in fed interest rates after the september meeting had tightened after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, arguing inflation "hasn't meaningfully improved." As of August 30, contract pricing put no change at 53.5% versus a 46.5% chance of a 25 bps increase, with $12.0M in 24-hour volume and $9.7M in liquidity logged across the most active outcomes. [CNBC, Sep 3]
The shift matters because Warsh noted that officials who backed keeping rates unchanged at the July 28-29 meeting "thought the wiser course was to await new information in the intermeeting period." That framing raised the odds of a move, and Fed watchers now expect the FOMC to consider raising rates after Warsh flagged that inflation continues to run above the central bank's 2% long-term target. Waller's countervailing stance reintroduced two-sided risk to whether there be no change in fed interest rates after the september meeting, splitting the committee's near-term guidance. [Marketplace, Aug 31]
Earlier positioning had leaned dovish: in July 2026, strategists expected the Fed to keep interest rates steady through year-end, citing a sharp decline in energy prices not yet reflected in official inflation projections and market-based inflation expectations that had fallen below pre-Iran-war levels. The key catalysts ahead are the next CPI print and labor-market data, which will determine whether the intermeeting information Warsh cited justifies a hike or validates Waller's hold. A 25 bps increase would mark the Fed's first upward move of the cycle, reversing the steady-rate path traders had assumed through late 2026. [PBS, Aug 29]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on YES, fair value 62c vs market 36c. BUY YES at 36c — models see 26c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 70c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 55c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 68c | 63% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 62c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 48c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 62c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 68c | 62% |
5 of 7 models estimate YES fair value above market (30–45c vs 36c). Gemini Flash leads with 65% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 62c — market prices it at 36c. 26-point gap supports YES.
Despite YES dominating the tracked wallet count, the 11 wallets split into 44c-68c YES entries and 55c-60c NO entries, with the NO cohort clearly having timed the market better. The tight 55c-60c NO entries suggest informed positioning that anticipated this decline, while the wide YES entry band looks like retail chasing a stale higher probability. Smart money is leaning NO, signaling the market is more likely to reprice below 36c than recover above the YES cost basis.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8152..da | Smart | YES | $10.0K | -34% | |
| 0xc658..84 | MM | NO | $121.3K | +11% | |
| 0xeb6f..f0 | MM | YES | $59.0K | -20% | |
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | NO | $34.0K | +2% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $14.2K | -52% | |
| 0x71ed..eb | MM | YES | $7.4K | -12% | |
| 0x5188..04 | MM | YES | $5.2K | -2% | |
| 0xeec5..fe | Retail | YES | $4.3K | -28% | |
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | YES | $3.2K | -17% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $2.2K | -13% | |
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | YES | $2.1K | -17% |
Every YES position is underwater with the market at 36c against entries of 44c-68c, while all NO holders are profitable from 55c-60c entries. The absence of any profitable YES wallets removes an obvious source of dip-buying support, and the 8-32c mark-to-market losses create latent sell pressure on any bounce. With NO holders sitting on gains, the path of least resistance favors further downside toward their entry range.
Polymarket prices YES at 38c with $28.1M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 62c. Significant 24-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 38c | $28.1M |
| Our Model | 62c | — |