Economics

Resolves: Sep 2026 47 days left Volume: $2.2M

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?'?

As of July 2026, prediction markets price this at 38% YES on Polymarket with $2.2M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?'?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 70c YES. 4 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

62c

YES

38c

Prediction markets put the probability at 44%: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting. Currently, markets are divided (44% YES, 56% NO).

Down from 74% to 38% since 2026-06-09 (-36pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $2.2M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.2M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 38c YES.

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On this market: 4/5 AI models agree YES. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 39c

4/5 models agree on YES, fair value 70c vs market 56c. BUY YES at 56c — models see 14c of upside.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

4 of 5 Models Agree: YES

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	YES	98c	—
MATH Compound Signal	YES	51c	—
AI Claude Analysis	???	55c	42%
AI DeepSeek Quant	YES	74c	65%
AI Kimi Macro	YES	56c	74%

4 of 5 models estimate YES fair value above market (51–98c vs 56c). Kimi Macro leads with 74% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 70c — market prices it at 56c. 14-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Is Uncertain: Claude Analysis at 55c — Prior is market 56% YES (hold). July 8 minutes show a deeply split FOMC ('family fight') with several officials backing a single hike thi...

1 of 4 Wallets Is a Economics Specialist

Smart money here is a single wallet leaning YES on rate stability, a positioning that reads as a bet the Fed holds steady through September 2026. The lone YES entry near the current price signals mild directional conviction toward no change rather than aggressive accumulation. With only one tracked participant and a NO-labeled dominant side that carries no tracked entries, the signal is directionally suggestive but too thin to confirm a strong smart-money thesis.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x8152..da	Smart	YES	$1.5K	-43%
This Market Entered at 57c → now 38c (-43%), $1.5K on YES Activity · 4 events · Jul 03 → Jul 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 03BUYYES69+$690$690 Jul 17BUYYES62+$620$1,240 Jul 19BUYYES59+$590$1,770 Jul 29BUYYES40+$400$1,600 Realized— Unrealized−$760 Total Profit−$760 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1770 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xeb6f..f0	MM	YES	$4.3K	-21%
This Market Entered at 46c → now 38c (-21%), $4.3K on YES Activity · 10 events · Jun 17 → Jul 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 17SELLYES56−$14$0 Jun 18BUYYES44+$1,789$1,789 Jun 24BUYYES57+$271$2,563 Jul 02BUYYES64+$3,256$6,132 Jul 08SELLYES65−$156$6,077 Jul 15BUYYES62+$91$5,888 Jul 21SELLYES50−$1$4,747 Jul 26BUYYES43+$798$4,847 Jul 29BUYYES42+$10,273$15,019 Jul 29SELLYES36−$8,801$4,042 Realized−$2,377 Unrealized−$791 Total Profit−$3,168 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1276) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$2.4K	-21%
This Market Entered at 47c → now 38c (-21%), $2.4K on YES Activity · 2 events · Jul 15 → Jul 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 15BUYYES62+$1,264$1,264 Jul 29BUYYES40+$1,671$2,478 Realized— Unrealized−$526 Total Profit−$526 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1242) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xa4b3..b8	Retail	YES	$2.3K	-25%
This Market Entered at 53c → now 38c (-25%), $2.3K on YES Activity · 9 events · Jun 26 → Jul 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 26BUYYES61+$518$518 Jul 13BUYYES36+$452$760 Jul 15BUYYES62+$752$2,054 Jul 15SELLYES61−$740$1,280 Jul 19BUYYES59+$270$1,509 Jul 20BUYYES54+$1,580$2,961 Jul 21BUYYES43+$141$2,500 Jul 22BUYYES44+$64$2,622 Jul 29BUYYES33+$16$1,982 Realized+$109 Unrealized−$845 Total Profit−$736 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1448 trades).

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No Positions Are Currently in Profit

The single tracked wallet entered YES at 55c against a current 56c mark, leaving it modestly in profit and representing 100% of profitable positioning on this market. With no NO entries and the lone participant riding a small unrealized gain, price support is thin but skewed toward the no-change outcome. The 1c cushion offers little conviction signal — this is a shallow book where a single actor sets the profitable tone.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 38c YES — $2.2M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 38c with $2.2M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 70c. Significant 32-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	38c	$2.2M
Our Model	70c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

As of July 2026, Polymarket prices this at 38% YES with $2.2M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 70c YES. 4 models agree on direction.