Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 74%: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting. Currently, markets see this as likely (74% YES). Item 1 of 2 Renovations continue at the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 14, 2025.

What’s Happening

A Reuters poll released June 9, 2026 showed 72 of 102 economists — nearly 70% — now forecast the Federal Reserve will hold its benchmark rate in the current 3.50%-3.75% range through year-end, marking the first clear consensus of 2026 that there be no change in fed interest rates after the september meeting or any subsequent 2026 FOMC gathering. The shift follows war-driven inflation running at roughly double the Fed's 2% target, with Middle East supply disruptions pushing energy and goods prices higher than policymakers initially modeled. New York Fed President John Williams reinforced the hold stance on June 3, telling Yahoo Finance monetary policy is in the "right place" and dismissing concerns about persistent second-round inflation effects. [Reuters, Jun 9]

Goldman Sachs delivered the most significant Wall Street recalibration on June 6, pushing its rate-cut forecast from December 2026 to June 2027, citing stronger-than-expected payrolls data and resilient labor demand. The bank now projects the next easing cycle will deliver 25-basis-point cuts in June and December 2027, replacing earlier calls for December 2026 and March 2027 reductions. Goldman analysts noted the resilient activity data has also "lowered the bar for a rate hike," though a hike remains a tail scenario. Historically, the Fed has held rates steady through full calendar years only three times since 1990 — most recently in 2019 before pandemic-era cuts — making a complete 2026 pause a notable structural break. [Reuters, Jun 8]

The September 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting now sits as the next decision point markets are pricing, with CME FedWatch implied probabilities aligning with the Reuters poll's hold thesis. Key data inputs before September include three CPI prints, two payrolls reports, and the Jackson Hole symposium in late August — any of which could re-open the cut debate if war-related inflation cools faster than the Fed's baseline. Whether there be no change in fed interest rates after the september meeting hinges primarily on core PCE trajectory, currently elevated above the 2% target. The probability that there be no change in fed interest rates after the september meeting reflects a consensus that the Fed lacks both the inflation cover for cuts and the growth weakness for emergency action. [Kitco, Jun 9]

Traded on Polymarket — $81K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($81K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 74c YES.