Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Sep 16, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $56.4M

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Q: How did 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Sep 16, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · SEP 16

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 4 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 7 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	3c	94%
Compound Signal	NO	38c	24%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	22c	72%
Grok Contrarian	YES	42c	55%
Gemini Flash	NO	25c	75%
Kimi Macro	NO	15c	72%
Claude Analysis	???	—	0%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 24c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

7 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Tracked wallets are positioned on both sides, but the NO cohort's 60c-65c entries have been validated by the move to 20c, signaling that informed money leaned toward a rate change despite YES being the dominant side by count. The YES entries at 40c-66c now look like stale positioning, suggesting the dominant-side label reflects crowded but losing exposure rather than smart-money conviction.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x8152..da	Smart	YES	$5.7K	-72%
This Market Entered at 52c → now 50c (-72%), $5.7K on YES Activity · 16 events · Jul 03 → Sep 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 03BUYYES69+$690$690 Jul 17BUYYES62+$620$1,240 Jul 19BUYYES59+$590$1,770 Jul 29BUYYES40+$400$1,600 Jul 30BUYYES46+$460$2,300 Aug 01BUYYES39+$390$2,340 Aug 04BUYYES49+$490$3,430 Aug 04SELLYES48−$480$2,880 Aug 06BUYYES51+$1,020$4,080 Aug 07BUYYES63+$1,260$6,300 Aug 20BUYYES72+$1,440$8,640 Aug 24BUYYES67+$1,340$9,380 Aug 29BUYYES53+$4,750$12,139 Aug 31BUYYES45+$450$10,800 Sep 10BUYYES35+$700$9,100 Sep 11BUYYES20+$400$5,600 Realized−$40 Unrealized−$8,743 Total Profit−$8,783 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1746 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xc658..84	MM	NO	$210.3K	+25%
This Market Entered at 60c → now 50c (+25%), $210.3K on NO Activity · 5 events · Aug 28 → Sep 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 28BUYNO50+$20,416$20,416 Aug 31BUYNO59+$37,628$61,719 Sep 07BUYNO50+$22,508$74,812 Sep 10BUYNO59+$27,997$116,004 Sep 11BUYNO76+$50,931$200,126 Realized— Unrealized+$50,832 Total Profit+$50,832 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1760) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	NO	$62.4K	+19%
This Market Entered at 65c → now 50c (+19%), $62.4K on NO Activity · 3 events · Sep 10 → Sep 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 10BUYNO60+$45,238$45,235 Sep 10SELLNO62−$12,227$34,314 Sep 11BUYNO80+$18,446$62,489 Realized+$343 Unrealized+$11,526 Total Profit+$11,869 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1660) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeb6f..f0	MM	YES	$31.4K	-46%
This Market Entered at 51c → now 50c (-46%), $31.4K on YES Activity · 29 events · Jun 17 → Sep 03 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 17SELLYES56−$14$0 Jun 18BUYYES44+$1,789$1,789 Jun 24BUYYES57+$271$2,563 Jul 02BUYYES64+$3,256$6,132 Jul 08SELLYES65−$156$6,077 Jul 15BUYYES62+$91$5,888 Jul 21SELLYES50−$1$4,747 Jul 26BUYYES43+$798$4,847 Jul 29BUYYES42+$10,273$15,019 Jul 29SELLYES36−$8,801$4,042 Jul 30BUYYES39+$36,118$40,570 Jul 30SELLYES45−$6,171$40,213 Aug 02SELLYES41−$16,271$20,367 Aug 04BUYYES46+$1,615$24,466 Aug 07BUYYES62+$17,063$50,134 Aug 07SELLYES64−$1,228$50,373 Aug 10SELLYES60−$3,122$44,103 Aug 11BUYYES58+$260$42,893 Aug 12BUYYES63+$11,456$58,069 Aug 13BUYYES69+$18,529$82,466 Aug 13SELLYES70−$518$82,661 Aug 14BUYYES74+$13,390$100,775 Aug 14SELLYES76−$914$102,584 Aug 16SELLYES73−$0$98,535 Aug 28BUYYES54+$10,379$83,267 Aug 28SELLYES55−$10,571$74,239 Sep 02BUYYES43+$8,690$66,731 Sep 03BUYYES49+$8$76,050 Sep 03SELLYES49−$972$75,217 Realized−$563 Unrealized−$47,004 Total Profit−$47,568 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1190) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$7.8K	-83%
This Market Entered at 66c → now 50c (-83%), $7.8K on YES Activity · 5 events · Aug 19 → Sep 12 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 19BUYYES71+$21,058$21,058 Aug 26BUYYES65+$722$20,001 Aug 29BUYYES54+$3,360$19,976 Sep 11BUYYES19+$190$7,219 Sep 12BUYYES20+$40$7,639 Realized— Unrealized−$17,541 Total Profit−$17,541 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1946) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x71ed..eb	MM	YES	$3.9K	-46%
This Market Entered at 46c → now 50c (-46%), $3.9K on YES Activity · 4 events · Jul 30 → Sep 10 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 30BUYYES44+$440$440 Aug 21SELLYES68−$2,557$0 Sep 03BUYYES46+$5,520$5,520 Sep 10BUYYES47+$4,700$10,340 Realized+$240 Unrealized−$4,973 Total Profit−$4,733 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (626) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	YES	$3.9K	-28%
This Market Entered at 40c → now 50c (-28%), $3.9K on YES Activity · 3 events · Aug 04 → Sep 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 04BUYYES44+$11,000$11,000 Aug 04SELLYES49−$5,610$6,640 Sep 11BUYYES20+$1,116$3,826 Realized+$572 Unrealized−$3,658 Total Profit−$3,085 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1538) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeec5..fe	Retail	YES	$2.3K	-52%
This Market Entered at 59c → now 50c (-52%), $2.3K on YES Activity · 8 events · Jun 15 → Aug 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 15BUYYES73+$105$105 Jun 18BUYYES58+$84$167 Jul 02BUYYES64+$147$331 Aug 07BUYYES54+$4,293$4,571 Aug 11BUYYES59+$120$5,149 Aug 12BUYYES74+$1,613$8,093 Aug 12SELLYES66−$285$6,909 Aug 13BUYYES70+$420$7,747 Realized+$33 Unrealized−$4,258 Total Profit−$4,226 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1518 trades).
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$1.7K	-44%
This Market Entered at 42c → now 50c (-44%), $1.7K on YES Activity · 4 events · Aug 04 → Sep 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 04BUYYES46+$5,705$5,705 Sep 10SELLYES39−$1,524$3,266 Sep 11BUYYES19+$422$2,013 Sep 11SELLYES23−$537$1,900 Realized−$704 Unrealized−$1,797 Total Profit−$2,501 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1230) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xa4b3..b8	Retail	YES	$1.1K	-44%
This Market Entered at 53c → now 50c (-44%), $1.1K on YES Activity · 10 events · Jun 26 → Aug 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 26BUYYES61+$518$518 Jul 13BUYYES36+$452$760 Jul 15BUYYES62+$752$2,054 Jul 15SELLYES61−$740$1,280 Jul 19BUYYES59+$270$1,509 Jul 20BUYYES54+$1,580$2,961 Jul 21BUYYES43+$141$2,500 Jul 22BUYYES44+$64$2,622 Jul 29BUYYES33+$16$1,982 Aug 07SELLYES65−$341$3,563 Realized+$174 Unrealized−$1,758 Total Profit−$1,584 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1432 trades).

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82% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$114,533 on $330.7K capital deployed (avg +34.6%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

82% in profit

YES positions

18% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	20c	$56.4M	0c
AI Consensus	24c	—	✓ matched

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