Iran leadership change by December 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Iran leadership change by December 31?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 36% YES on Polymarket with $1.7M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Iran leadership change by December 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

64c

YES

36c

Prediction markets give a 36% probability to: iran leadership change by december 31?.

Currently at 36%

Traded on Polymarket — $1.7M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.7M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 36c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

Smart money signal: 5 tracked wallets positioned YES with 11.2x conviction. Backed by $1.7M in trading volume.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 35c

Smart money entered YES at 34c–59c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 5 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 4 market makers are providing $36K in liquidity, primarily on YES. YES wallets entered between 34c–59c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	MM	YES	$25.0K	-39%
This Market Entered at 59c → now 36c (-39%), $25.0K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1330 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1330) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xfcf2..69	Retail	YES	$16.6K	-35%
This Market Entered at 55c → now 36c (-35%), $16.6K on YES Track Record 21d on platform · 1974 trades · 100% win rate · politics specialist AI Insight Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1974 trades).
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$5.3K	+5%
This Market Entered at 34c → now 36c (+5%), $5.3K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1570 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1570) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc408..75	MM	NO	$3.8K	+74%
This Market Entered at 37c → now 64c (+74%), $3.8K on NO Track Record 1y on platform · 1478 trades · other specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1478) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$1.6K	-20%
This Market Entered at 44c → now 36c (-20%), $1.6K on YES Track Record 21d on platform · 1066 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1066) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 34c–59c, NO wallets at 37c. At current price 36c, all NO holders are profitable vs 25% of YES holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

25% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 36c YES — $1.7M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 36c with $1.7M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 36c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	36c	$1.7M
Our Model	36c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Iran leadership change by December 31??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 36% YES with $1.7M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Iran leadership change by December 31??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Iran leadership change by December 31??

OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.