Iran leadership change by December 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Iran leadership change by December 31?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 28% YES on Polymarket with $2.6M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Iran leadership change by December 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 7 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Iran leadership change by December 31?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 33c YES. 7 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

72c

YES

28c

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Iran leadership change by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES).

Down from 36% to 28% since 2026-04-14 (-8pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $2.6M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.6M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 28c YES.

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On this market: 7/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 72c

7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 33c vs market 28c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 28c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

7 of 7 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	NO	82c	—
MATH PIN Model	NO	67c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	63c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	78c	65%
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	82c	72%
AI Gemini Flash	NO	70c	70%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	28c	65%

7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (28–82c vs 72c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 72% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 67c — market prices it at 72c. 5-point gap supports YES.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is decisively positioned against leadership change, with NO entries clustered as high as 71c signaling early conviction that the regime endures through year-end. The fact that no YES wallet has found profit despite entries as low as 34c suggests tracked alpha views any Iran instability premium as a fade, not a trend.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xfcf2..69	Retail	YES	$7.9K	-56%
This Market Entered at 47c → now 28c (-56%), $7.9K on YES Activity · 17 events · Mar 10 → May 06 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 10BUYYES61+$1,741$1,741 Mar 13BUYYES65+$2,007$3,862 Mar 15BUYYES66+$366$4,315 Mar 16BUYYES63+$984$5,079 Mar 20BUYYES62+$240$5,239 Mar 22BUYYES61+$172$5,329 Mar 23BUYYES53+$580$5,190 Mar 27BUYYES52+$487$5,601 Mar 28BUYYES51+$166$5,649 Mar 29BUYYES53+$23$5,894 Mar 30BUYYES51+$3$5,655 Apr 04BUYYES37+$880$4,996 Apr 07BUYYES47+$1,466$7,819 Apr 23BUYYES40+$273$6,922 May 04BUYYES36+$381$6,579 May 05BUYYES37+$1,554$8,350 May 06BUYYES33+$1,699$9,163 Realized— Unrealized−$5,126 Total Profit−$5,126 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1974 trades).
0x12d6..a8	MM	YES	$6.3K	-63%
This Market Entered at 51c → now 28c (-63%), $6.3K on YES Activity · 36 events · Mar 10 → May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 10BUYYES61+$2,758$2,758 Mar 11BUYYES64+$529$3,421 Mar 12BUYYES63+$3,968$7,326 Mar 13BUYYES63+$67$7,416 Mar 15BUYYES68+$3,400$11,405 Mar 16BUYYES63+$1,568$12,119 Mar 19BUYYES62+$3,695$15,639 Mar 20BUYYES62+$281$15,920 Mar 23BUYYES56+$212$14,591 Mar 23SELLYES57−$239$14,685 Mar 24BUYYES55+$3,243$17,343 Mar 25BUYYES51+$341$16,416 Mar 26BUYYES47+$369$15,504 Mar 30BUYYES52+$2,142$19,450 Mar 31BUYYES39+$130$14,586 Apr 01BUYYES33+$231$12,573 Apr 03SELLYES37−$2,549$11,617 Apr 04SELLYES38−$2,981$8,957 Apr 05SELLYES39−$780$8,362 Apr 06BUYYES42+$449$9,455 Apr 07BUYYES50+$1,250$12,488 Apr 15BUYYES32+$44$8,049 Apr 17BUYYES29+$50$7,344 Apr 17SELLYES29−$281$7,063 Apr 18BUYYES29+$360$7,423 Apr 20SELLYES33−$298$8,149 Apr 21SELLYES36−$962$7,910 Apr 28BUYYES38+$247$8,613 May 08BUYYES31+$848$7,874 May 16BUYYES34+$340$8,976 May 20BUYYES32+$103$8,551 May 21BUYYES30+$42$8,058 May 23SELLYES38−$749$9,458 May 25SELLYES30−$1,125$6,342 May 26SELLYES31−$2,165$4,389 May 29BUYYES28+$2,240$6,204 Realized−$7,195 Unrealized−$5,023 Total Profit−$12,218 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1240) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	NO	$3.8K	+11%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 64c → now 72c (+11%), $3.8K on NO Activity · 6 events · Mar 13 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 13BUYNO35+$140$140 May 05BUYNO65+$1,285$1,545 May 06BUYNO66+$233$1,802 May 07BUYNO70+$1,096$3,006 May 09BUYNO67+$515$3,392 May 23BUYNO61+$167$3,278 Realized— Unrealized+$379 Total Profit+$379 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1828 trades).
0xc408..75	MM	NO	$2.8K	+93%
This Market Entered at 37c → now 72c (+93%), $2.8K on NO Activity · 3 events · Mar 11 → Mar 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 11BUYNO36+$360$360 Mar 12BUYNO38+$575$955 Mar 13BUYNO37+$493$1,424 Realized— Unrealized+$1,323 Total Profit+$1,323 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1442) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xa8af..5e	MM	NO	$2.3K	+3%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 72c (+3%), $2.3K on NO Activity · 7 events · May 04 → May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal May 04BUYNO62+$310$310 May 15BUYNO66+$990$1,320 May 21BUYNO70+$140$1,540 May 24BUYNO70+$700$2,240 May 28BUYNO73+$730$3,066 May 29BUYNO73+$730$3,796 May 29SELLNO72−$1,414$2,329 Realized+$54 Unrealized+$73 Total Profit+$128 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1436) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$1.6K	+1%
This Market Entered at 71c → now 72c (+1%), $1.6K on NO Activity · 3 events · Mar 20 → Apr 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 20BUYNO38+$192$192 Apr 14BUYNO67+$7$345 Apr 17BUYNO71+$1,618$1,984 Realized— Unrealized+$12 Total Profit+$12 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1870) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$1.5K	-8%
This Market Entered at 34c → now 28c (-8%), $1.5K on YES Activity · 3 events · Apr 03 → Apr 12 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 03BUYYES34+$378$378 Apr 07SELLYES46−$818$0 Apr 12BUYYES34+$2,037$2,037 Realized+$131 Unrealized−$290 Total Profit−$159 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1618) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

All NO holders are in profit with entries from 37c-71c against the current 28c, while 100% of YES holders are underwater after entering 34c-51c. This asymmetric P&L gives NO holders strong conviction to hold or add, while trapped YES positions create overhead supply that caps any rally attempt.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 28c YES — $2.6M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 28c with $2.6M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 33c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	28c	$2.6M
Our Model	33c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Iran leadership change by December 31?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 28% YES with $2.6M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Iran leadership change by December 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Iran leadership change by December 31?

OddsShift tracks 7 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Iran leadership change by December 31?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 33c YES. 7 models agree on direction.