AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 7c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 6c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 93c–97c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $26.2K | -2% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | MM | NO | $7.2K | -3% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $4.9K | +0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,894 on $38.3K capital deployed (avg +4.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 6c | — | ✓ matched |