As of September 21, 2026, Polymarket prices “Iran Nuke before 2027?” at 5% YES with $1.3M traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: iran nuke before 2027?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 12c vs market 5c. BUY NO at 5c — models see 7c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–97c vs 95c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 88c — market prices it at 95c. 7-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 91c, signaling strong conviction that Iran will not acquire a nuclear weapon before 2027. That entry implies the market's 5c YES price is viewed as overpriced tail risk rather than a live scenario. With only one wallet tracked, the signal is directional but thin, so treat it as a sentiment marker rather than a broad smart-money consensus.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $3.3K | +4% |
With YES at 5c, every YES position is underwater while all NO entries at 91c are in profit, creating a one-sided P&L structure. The absence of profitable YES holders removes any natural bid support, leaving the 5c level vulnerable to further decay. Profit-taking pressure from NO holders is the main risk to the current price, but no YES accumulation is visible to absorb it.
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $1.3M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 12c. 7-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $1.3M |
| Our Model | 12c | — |