Prediction markets put the probability at 94%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29. Currently, markets see this as likely (94% YES). Live Updates Mediators Propose 10-day Cease-fire to Revive Iran-U.S.
On Sunday, July 26, an Iranian source said Tehran would halt its attacks as long as the United States maintains its latest pause in fighting, after the Pentagon suspended bombing operations following nearly two weeks of escalating strikes. The de-escalation is the strongest signal yet that the israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29, with the separate 13-night U.S.-Iran exchange now frozen and Jerusalem remaining largely on the sidelines of the direct American campaign. Saudi channel Al Hadath reported that both Washington and Tehran had responded to mediators' proposals aimed at restarting talks. [Haaretz, Jul 26]
The diplomatic track remains fragile. Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan presented the U.S. and Iran a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire to revive Iran-U.S. talks, according to regional sources. Hawks in Washington caution that President Trump is nearing a decisive fork, with U.S. and Israeli officials framing only two viable endgames after ten straight nights of bombing failed to break Iran's grip. Analysts counter that Iran is pursuing "both war and diplomacy based on its national interests," leaving open whether the israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29 or collapses if strikes resume. Tehran has also confirmed receiving the U.S. talks proposals. [Axios, Jul 21]
The structural factor determining resolution is whether the Pentagon's bombing pause holds through the settlement date. With more than 50,000 U.S. troops in the Middle East and UN Secretary-General António Guterres pressing for an end to Gaza suffering amid the broader escalation, a single retaliatory strike could reset the clock. So long as the U.S. maintains its pause and mediators keep the 10-day framework alive, the ceasefire's short remaining window favors continuity through July 29. [Times of Israel, Jul 24]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($79K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 94c YES.
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