US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?'?

As of June 2026, prediction markets price this at 28% YES on Polymarket with $182K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

72c

YES

28c

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES). Donald Trump says the US agreement with Iran will be signed "shortly", as US officials reveal details of the deal.

Up from 26% to 28% since 2026-06-22 (+2pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $182K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 28c YES with $182K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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Smart money signal: 3 tracked wallets positioned NO. Backed by $182K in trading volume.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 72c

3 smart wallets positioned NO.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $14K in liquidity, primarily on YES.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x44c1..c1	MM	YES	$7.4K	+6%
This Market Entered at 26c → now 28c (+6%), $7.4K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 23BUYYES26+$7,005$7,005 Realized— Unrealized+$404 Total Profit+$404 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1778) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$4.5K	+2%
This Market Entered at 27c → now 28c (+2%), $4.5K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 23BUYYES27+$4,436$4,436 Realized— Unrealized+$82 Total Profit+$82 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1066) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$1.7K	+10%
This Market Entered at 25c → now 28c (+10%), $1.7K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 22BUYYES25+$1,589$1,589 Realized— Unrealized+$159 Total Profit+$159 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1120) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 25c–27c. At current price 28c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 28c YES — $182K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 28c with $182K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 28c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	28c	$182K
Our Model	28c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

As of June 2026, Polymarket prices this at 28% YES with $182K in total volume.

Where can I bet on US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.