How did 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Sep 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Sep 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $4.6M

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Resolved · SEP 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 5 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	26c	48%
Claude Analysis	NO	6c	88%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	6c	82%
Kimi Macro	NO	6c	94%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is uniformly positioned NO, with no tracked wallet defending the YES side even at deeply discounted entries. The absence of new YES accumulation near 6c signals traders see a final US-Iran nuclear deal by Aug 31 as highly unlikely to resolve YES.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0c0e..4e	MM	NO	$94.7K	+4%
This Market Entered at 91c → now 50c (+4%), $94.7K on NO Activity · 5 events · Jul 10 → Jul 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 10BUYNO87+$8,683$8,683 Jul 12BUYNO89+$23,699$32,582 Jul 13BUYNO91+$22,764$55,994 Jul 15BUYNO94+$10,495$68,358 Jul 29BUYNO94+$25,706$94,210 Realized— Unrealized+$3,363 Total Profit+$3,363 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1336) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$2.9K	-62%
This Market Entered at 12c → now 50c (-62%), $2.9K on YES Activity · 2 events · Jul 10 → Jul 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 10BUYYES13+$5,985$5,985 Jul 13BUYYES9+$599$4,742 Realized— Unrealized−$3,686 Total Profit−$3,686 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1756) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$2.1K	-76%
This Market Entered at 23c → now 50c (-76%), $2.1K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 24BUYYES23+$8,941$8,941 Realized— Unrealized−$6,803 Total Profit−$6,803 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1674) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x44c1..c1	MM	YES	$1.5K	-79%
This Market Entered at 26c → now 50c (-79%), $1.5K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 23BUYYES26+$7,005$7,005 Realized— Unrealized−$5,523 Total Profit−$5,523 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1810) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

94% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,689 on $101.2K capital deployed (avg +2.7%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

94% in profit

YES positions

6% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$4.6M	0c
AI Consensus	9c	—	✓ matched

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