Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).
Polymarket prices this at 12c YES with $193K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 10c vs market 12c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 12c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 93c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 94c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 82c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 93c | 78% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 92c | 82% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 70% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 90c | 80% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (82–94c vs 88c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 82% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 90c — market prices it at 88c. 2-point gap supports NO.
Single tracked wallet positioned NO at 44c signals conviction Pezeshkian survives the June 30 deadline, and the market has converged toward that view. The absence of any YES entries among tracked alpha indicates smart money never priced meaningful regime-change risk. Directional read: continued drift toward resolution NO unless an exogenous Iran shock reprices survival odds.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.5K | +63% |
Sole tracked NO position entered at 44c sits deeply in profit with YES now at 12c, a 32-point gain validating the fade. Zero YES profitability reinforces the directional skew — every dollar of smart money on this market is on the survival side. Price support for YES looks thin; the move from 44c to 12c suggests no tracked capital is defending the ouster thesis.
Polymarket prices YES at 12c with $193K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $193K |
| Our Model | 10c | — |