AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 7c |
86%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 18c |
64%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
82%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 10c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Single tracked wallet positioned NO at 44c signals conviction Pezeshkian survives the June 30 deadline, and the market has converged toward that view. The absence of any YES entries among tracked alpha indicates smart money never priced meaningful regime-change risk. Directional read: continued drift toward resolution NO unless an exogenous Iran shock reprices survival odds.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $2.1K | +43% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,763 on $2.1K capital deployed (avg +85.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $322.4K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |