As of September 20, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?” at 6% YES with $10.7M traded. 3 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 6% probability to: will the us acquire part of greenland in 2026?.
On this market: 8/8 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
8 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 92% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 92c — market prices it at 94c. 2-point gap supports YES.
2 of 3 Tracked Wallets
Tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on the NO side, entering at 76c-78c and now sitting on gains as the market prices near-certain rejection of US acquisition of Greenland in 2026. Their entries signal conviction that the deal is effectively dead, with no smart-money flow supporting the YES thesis at current levels.
Wallet
Category
Side
Amount
P&L
0xc021..a8 ★
Smart
NO
$8.2K
+20%
★ Tier-1 Wallet
80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets
This Market
Entered at 78c → now 94c (+20%), $8.2K on NO
Activity · 3 events · Jan 15 → Feb 22
DatePositionAmountTotal
Jan 15BUYNO79+$2,773$2,773
Jan 18BUYNO77+$4,762$7,465
Feb 22SELLNO82−$820$7,130
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$1,420
Total Profit+$1,462
Wallet Type
High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1124 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
Every tracked YES position is underwater with the YES price at 6c against entries at 18c, while all NO entries at 76c-78c are profitable as the market collapsed toward 6c. The absence of any profitable YES holder removes natural bid support, and the 12c gap between entry and current price suggests continued capitulation risk rather than accumulation.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
100%in profit
Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 1 Cents
Polymarket prices YES at 6c while Kalshi has it at 5c — a 1-cent gap within normal range. Our model estimates fair value at 8c.
What are the current odds for Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 6% YES with $10.7M in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 8c YES. 8 models agree on direction.
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