Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Trump has renewed threats to take Greenland, but Denmark and Greenland both refuse to sell, leaving acquisition unlikely at 6% odds for 2026.

What’s Happening

President Donald Trump reignited his campaign for American control of Greenland at the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, telling reporters on July 7 that the Arctic island "should be controlled by the United States" and that Washington could withdraw American troops from Europe over the dispute. The remarks marked the most forceful revival of a push Trump has periodically raised since his return to office, framing Greenland as vital to U.S. security during a bilateral meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The threat to reposition forces stationed across the continent escalated what had previously been rhetorical pressure into a linkage between troop deployments and territorial control. [CNBC, Jul 07]

The response from Copenhagen was immediate and unequivocal. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, speaking in Ankara on July 8, said Denmark was ready to defend "every inch" of its territory and reiterated that Greenland "is not for sale." She widened the message to the alliance itself, stating Denmark would defend "every inch of NATO," including the Danish kingdom. Any scenario in which the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026 would require the consent of both Denmark and Greenland's government, neither of which has signaled willingness to negotiate a transfer of sovereignty. The standoff placed a NATO member's territorial integrity at the center of a summit intended to project unity. [Reuters, Jul 08]

Domestic pushback also surfaced within Trump's own party. Republican Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, who has previously warned of impeachment over any move to invade Greenland, on July 9 called the president's comments "foolish" and accused him of damaging relations with European allies. With no formal negotiation, treaty framework, or Danish consent in place, the legal and diplomatic path for the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026 remains absent. The immediate stakes center on whether Trump's troop-withdrawal threat translates into concrete policy or remains pressure rhetoric, and how the episode affects broader transatlantic cohesion heading into the remainder of the year. [Newsweek, Jul 09]

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