Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES).
Price has been stable at 16% since 2026-04-14
Traded on Polymarket — $10.1M Volume
One of the highest-volume markets on Polymarket with $10.1M traded. Deep liquidity means tight spreads — you can enter and exit large positions without significant slippage. Currently priced at 16c YES.
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (80–92c vs 84c). Kimi Macro leads with 80% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 84c. 3-point gap supports NO.
5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity
Smart money entered NO between 76-78c when YES was still pricing 22-24% odds, signaling conviction the acquisition narrative would decay rather than escalate — and the trade has compounded as YES drifted to 16c. With no tracked wallet willing to take the YES side even at sub-20c, the positioning points to continued downside toward single-digit YES pricing absent a concrete policy catalyst.
Wallet
Category
Side
Amount
P&L
0xc021..a8 ★
MM
NO
$7.3K
+8%
★ Tier-1 Wallet
80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets
This Market
Entered at 78c → now 84c (+8%), $7.3K on NO
Activity · 3 events · Jan 15 → Feb 22
DatePositionAmountTotal
Jan 15BUYNO79+$2,773$2,773
Jan 18BUYNO77+$4,762$7,465
Feb 22SELLNO82−$820$7,130
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$589
Total Profit+$632
Wallet Type
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1232) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35
MM
YES
$4.7K
-5%
This Market
Entered at 17c → now 16c (-5%), $4.7K on YES
Activity · 7 events · Jan 12 → May 26
DatePositionAmountTotal
Jan 12BUYYES24+$267$267
Jan 16BUYYES20+$207$430
Jan 21BUYYES38+$20$836
Jan 22BUYYES27+$3,703$4,297
Jan 23BUYYES27+$4,121$8,418
May 12BUYYES18+$4,106$9,563
May 26BUYYES15+$998$9,195
Realized—
Unrealized−$435
Total Profit−$435
Wallet Type
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1870) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
All five tracked wallets sit on the NO side with entries at 76-78c, now marked at 84c — every NO position is in profit while the lone YES-side exposure at 16-18c hovers at breakeven with zero wallets profitable. The unanimous NO profitability removes any incentive to defend YES, and the 8-cent cushion lets NO holders absorb headline spikes without forced exits.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
100%in profit
Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 8 Cents
Polymarket prices YES at 16c while Kalshi has it at 8c — a 8-cent gap. Polymarket traders are more bullish on YES. Our model estimates fair value at 13c.
What are the current odds for Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 16% YES with $10.1M in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 13c YES. 7 models agree on direction.
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