Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (3 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jul 07, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $44.1M

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Q: How did 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 07, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 07

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 3 of 7 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	28c	44%
PIN Model	NO	16c	68%
Compound Signal	NO	21c	58%
Claude Analysis	NO	12c	82%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	18c	72%
Kimi Macro	NO	78c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 29c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

8 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money skewed decisively bearish on normalization: NO entries clustered 49c-81c reflect early conviction that Hormuz disruption persists through June, and the market validated them. The wide YES entry band (15c-45c) with most underwater suggests scattered contrarian bets rather than coordinated thesis — directional signal points to NO continuing to dominate into resolution.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0c0e..4e	MM	NO	$324.9K	+8%
This Market Entered at 86c → now 50c (+8%), $324.9K on NO Activity · 15 events · May 11 → Jun 24 DatePositionAmountTotal May 11BUYNO59+$19$19 May 26BUYNO61+$3,958$3,978 May 27BUYNO57+$900$4,637 May 28BUYNO63+$11,338$16,472 May 30BUYNO71+$16,017$34,548 Jun 01BUYNO76+$40,394$77,375 Jun 04BUYNO85+$7,650$94,188 Jun 05BUYNO83+$1,228$93,200 Jun 09BUYNO91+$54,600$156,783 Jun 10BUYNO92+$29,440$187,946 Jun 19BUYNO88+$15,051$195,785 Jun 20BUYNO95+$72,247$281,440 Jun 22BUYNO94+$9,373$289,235 Jun 23BUYNO97+$33,783$331,909 Jun 24BUYNO98+$634$335,318 Realized— Unrealized+$28,219 Total Profit+$28,219 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1396) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x44c1..c1	MM	NO	$221.5K	+9%
This Market Entered at 86c → now 50c (+9%), $221.5K on NO Activity · 3 events · Jun 17 → Jun 26 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 17BUYNO82+$41,291$41,291 Jun 18BUYNO78+$61,206$100,483 Jun 26BUYNO95+$99,641$221,665 Realized— Unrealized+$19,363 Total Profit+$19,363 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1788) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x2e0b..70	MM	NO	$70.5K	+1%
This Market Entered at 94c → now 50c (+1%), $70.5K on NO Activity · 4 events · Jun 10 → Jun 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 10BUYNO93+$6,131$6,131 Jun 20BUYNO93+$46,433$52,579 Jun 23BUYNO97+$17,406$72,016 Jun 24BUYNO97+$116$72,504 Realized— Unrealized+$443 Total Profit+$443 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (785) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	Retail	YES	$26.4K	-70%
This Market Entered at 17c → now 50c (-70%), $26.4K on YES Activity · 9 events · May 20 → Jun 24 DatePositionAmountTotal May 20BUYYES33+$7,931$7,930 May 25BUYYES56+$6,549$19,949 May 29BUYYES39+$5,644$19,582 Jun 11BUYYES17+$37,261$45,783 Jun 14BUYYES30+$3,030$85,375 Jun 17BUYYES19+$13,383$66,655 Jun 18BUYYES13+$3,046$48,652 Jun 19BUYYES9+$7,692$41,374 Jun 24BUYYES4+$1,354$19,879 Realized— Unrealized−$59,501 Total Profit−$59,501 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$21.6K	-83%
This Market Entered at 44c → now 50c (-83%), $21.6K on YES Activity · 16 events · May 05 → Jun 14 DatePositionAmountTotal May 05BUYYES44+$6,606$6,605 May 06BUYYES53+$57,356$65,353 May 07BUYYES52+$13,532$78,009 May 10BUYYES52+$12,382$89,645 May 18BUYYES34+$3,889$62,099 May 20BUYYES32+$2,704$61,883 May 21BUYYES33+$2,279$66,036 May 22BUYYES36+$5,089$76,328 May 23BUYYES59+$23,685$149,862 May 24BUYYES57+$62,125$207,198 May 27BUYYES42+$1,255$154,008 Jun 03BUYYES18+$4,723$69,955 Jun 11BUYYES19+$11,945$85,831 Jun 12BUYYES21+$3,864$101,436 Jun 14BUYYES28+$6,891$141,428 Jun 14SELLYES27−$25,315$107,628 Realized−$16,257 Unrealized−$155,130 Total Profit−$171,387 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1758) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$8.7K	+46%
This Market Entered at 52c → now 50c (+46%), $8.7K on NO Activity · 6 events · May 07 → Jun 24 DatePositionAmountTotal May 07BUYNO49+$6,723$6,722 May 08SELLNO45−$1,810$4,437 May 10SELLNO49−$657$4,146 Jun 16BUYNO82+$1,006$7,945 Jun 20SELLNO92−$570$8,343 Jun 24BUYNO96+$96$8,839 Realized+$108 Unrealized+$3,936 Total Profit+$4,045 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1180) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	NO	$2.3K	0%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 95c → now 50c (0%), $2.3K on NO Activity · 5 events · Jun 10 → Jun 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 10BUYNO93+$103$103 Jun 19BUYNO93+$609$712 Jun 20BUYNO92+$49$753 Jun 21BUYNO94+$607$1,380 Jun 23BUYNO97+$966$2,382 Realized— Unrealized−$5 Total Profit−$5 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1754 trades).
0xeec5..fe	Retail	NO	$2.3K	+6%
This Market Entered at 92c → now 50c (+6%), $2.3K on NO Activity · 5 events · Jun 01 → Jun 26 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 01BUYNO76+$380$380 Jun 08SELLNO89−$445$0 Jun 23BUYNO96+$2,131$2,131 Jun 25BUYNO92+$29$2,080 Jun 26BUYNO90+$179$2,196 Realized+$65 Unrealized+$61 Total Profit+$126 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1554 trades).
0x6bab..92 ★	MM	YES	$2.2K	-54%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 10c → now 50c (-54%), $2.2K on YES Activity · 3 events · Jun 11 → Jun 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 11BUYYES15+$1,604$1,604 Jun 19BUYYES8+$2,924$3,775 Jun 24SELLYES5−$311$2,057 Realized−$284 Unrealized−$1,741 Total Profit−$2,025 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1696) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$1.9K	-53%
This Market Entered at 30c → now 50c (-53%), $1.9K on YES Activity · 18 events · May 05 → Jun 20 DatePositionAmountTotal May 05BUYYES45+$4,567$4,566 May 06SELLYES52−$3,742$1,455 May 10BUYYES41+$1,298$2,453 May 12BUYYES33+$3,300$5,275 May 15BUYYES28+$4,930$9,406 May 20SELLYES34−$621$10,800 May 23BUYYES29+$1,470$10,809 May 23SELLYES55−$5,504$14,731 May 29BUYYES36+$1,440$11,075 May 31BUYYES30+$1,799$11,026 Jun 01BUYYES20+$612$7,887 Jun 04BUYYES15+$487$6,466 Jun 11SELLYES24−$1,067$9,278 Jun 14BUYYES20+$559$8,291 Jun 14SELLYES21−$94$8,798 Jun 17SELLYES21−$467$8,147 Jun 20BUYYES7+$222$2,810 Jun 20SELLYES8−$531$2,839 Realized+$1,054 Unrealized−$8,849 Total Profit−$7,795 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1504) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	YES	$1.0K	-35%
This Market Entered at 32c → now 50c (-35%), $1.0K on YES Activity · 25 events · Apr 24 → Jun 09 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 24BUYYES58+$116$116 Apr 24SELLYES62−$124$0 Apr 25BUYYES59+$542$542 Apr 26SELLYES58−$250$282 Apr 27BUYYES56+$1,886$2,159 Apr 27SELLYES62−$9$2,381 Apr 28SELLYES59−$295$1,971 May 18SELLYES29−$136$832 May 20BUYYES31+$3,868$4,772 May 21BUYYES33+$1,491$6,535 May 21SELLYES35−$1,017$5,816 May 22BUYYES31+$5,235$10,389 May 22SELLYES33−$7,932$3,347 May 23BUYYES34+$6,145$9,545 May 24BUYYES58+$412$16,695 May 26BUYYES43+$7,424$19,781 May 26SELLYES43−$6,574$13,248 May 27BUYYES43+$927$14,138 May 27SELLYES42−$966$12,876 May 28SELLYES38−$97$11,552 May 29SELLYES37−$3,597$7,652 Jun 02SELLYES21−$1,093$3,249 Jun 05SELLYES17−$216$2,414 Jun 09BUYYES10+$1,843$3,263 Jun 09SELLYES11−$1,475$2,114 Realized−$1,853 Unrealized−$5,024 Total Profit−$6,878 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1286) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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92% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$45,676 on $683.3K capital deployed (avg +6.7%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

92% in profit

YES positions

8% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	5c	$44.1M	0c
AI Consensus	29c	—	✓ matched

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