Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 63%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June. Currently, markets are divided (63% YES, 37% NO). Global oil stocks could fall by 900 million bbl even if ceasefire is extended, Citi says.

What’s Happening

The probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by the end of June stands at 63% as of April 20, 2026, according to market data. This assessment comes amid extreme volatility in the waterway, where only three ships crossed on Monday after Iran reversed its earlier decision to reopen the passage. On Saturday, 24 vessels had transited the strait following the start of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, but within 24 hours Iran reversed course and traffic collapsed again. The U.S. military confirmed that a destroyer fired "several rounds" at an Iranian-flagged ship attempting to violate a naval blockade, and released footage of Marines seizing an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday. Tehran has vowed retaliation for the seizure, further complicating the outlook for a return to normal flows. [NYT, Apr 20] [CNN, Apr 19]

The disruption matters because the Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil consumption, and analysts warn of severe inventory drawdowns even under optimistic scenarios. Researchers at Citi said on Monday that global crude and product inventories could decline by roughly 900 million barrels even if the U.S. and Iran agree to a ceasefire extension this week, and both Strait of Hormuz flows and oil production recover to normal levels by the end of June. The bank noted that inventories would reach their lowest levels in eight years under that scenario. An expert quoted by CNN warned that even if the strait reopens, it could take "months on end" before shipping schedules and insurance markets normalize, suggesting that the 63% probability of a return to normal by end of June may be optimistic given the logistical bottlenecks. [Kitco, Apr 20] [CNN, Apr 19]

What comes next hinges on diplomatic and military developments in the coming weeks. The U.S. and Iran are reportedly negotiating a ceasefire extension, but the seizure of an Iranian vessel and the exchange of fire at sea have escalated tensions. Iran's state news agency said Tehran has vowed to retaliate against U.S. forces, raising the risk of further disruptions. The key question for the end of June deadline is whether a sustained diplomatic agreement can be reached that allows commercial shipping to resume without the threat of attack or blockade. Analysts caution that even if a ceasefire is signed, the physical clearance of mines, restoration of insurance coverage, and repositioning of crews will take weeks, making the 63% probability a reflection of deep uncertainty rather than confidence. [CNN, Apr 20] [Kitco, Apr 20]

Traded on Polymarket — $413K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 65c YES with $413K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.