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Resolves: Jan 2027 ended Volume: $545K

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

NO
95c
YES
5c

As of September 13, 2026, Polymarket prices “OpenAI IPO before 2027?” at 5% YES with $545K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.

Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: openai ipo before 2027?.

Down from 49% to 5% since 2026-06-16 (-44pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $545K Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →
On this market: 8/8 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis

See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.

HOLD · NO ENTRY AI VERDICT
HOLD

8/8 models agree on NO, fair value 8c vs market 5c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 5c.

— TARGET YIELD

8 of 8 Models Agree: NO

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH Bayesian UpdateNO97c—
MATH PIN ModelNO97c—
MATH Compound SignalNO75c—
AI Claude AnalysisNO97c
88%
AI DeepSeek QuantNO96c
82%
AI Grok ContrarianNO88c
68%
AI Gemini FlashNO96c
85%
AI Kimi MacroNO92c
72%

8 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–97c vs 95c). Claude Analysis leads with 88% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 92c — market prices it at 95c. 3-point gap supports YES.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

The single tracked wallet is exclusively positioned on NO at 76c, signaling strong conviction against an IPO before 2027. With no YES entries, this wallet's directional bet aligns with the broader market's 95% implied probability of NO. Their profitable position may encourage further NO selling, keeping YES prices suppressed near 5c.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x5cd5..33 ★RetailNO$3.0K+22%
See all 88 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

All NO Positions Are in Profit

All tracked NO positions are in profit at the current 5c YES price, with entries around 76c, implying a 71c gain per contract. Zero YES holders are profitable, creating no downside pressure from YES sellers and reinforcing the 5c floor as a likely ceiling. The absence of profitable YES positions suggests the market has fully priced out an OpenAI IPO before 2027.

Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
100% in profit

Polymarket: 5c YES — $545K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $545K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 8c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket5c$545K
Our Model8c—
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for OpenAI IPO before 2027?
As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 5% YES with $545K in total volume.

Where can I bet on OpenAI IPO before 2027?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about OpenAI IPO before 2027?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for OpenAI IPO before 2027?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 8c YES. 8 models agree on direction.