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Resolved: Jul 29, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $40.5M

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Resolved · JUL 29
NO
0c
YES
100c
Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 5 of 6 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.
MODERATE RESULT
YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

DIRECTION MATCHED
47c
95c
100c
100c
Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 6 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model Said Fair Value estimated fair price of YES Confidence Result
Bayesian Update YES 97c
94%
PIN Model YES 95c
90%
Compound Signal YES 75c
50%
Claude Analysis YES 90c
70%
DeepSeek Quant NO 35c
65%
Kimi Macro YES 90c
85%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 80c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 20 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 4 market makers are providing $13K in liquidity, primarily on YES. YES wallets entered between 78c–96c.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0xd1ac..d5RetailYES$155.4K-12%
0x0aae..1cRetailYES$62.6K-18%
0xbacd..35RetailYES$59.3K-15%
0xde7b..4bRetailNO$53.8K+29%
0x69aa..47RetailYES$48.6K-13%
0x5cd5..33 RetailYES$41.3K-12%
0xa52b..80RetailYES$17.0K+3%
0xcaab..ddRetailYES$15.9K-1%
0x8152..daRetailYES$10.4K0%
0x0845..6fRetailYES$9.5K-7%
0xeb6f..f0RetailNO$8.6K+96%
0xd039..32RetailYES$7.5K-9%
0xfcf2..69RetailYES$4.0K-8%
0x24c8..e1MMYES$3.9K-19%
0x162f..8dMMYES$3.8K-3%
0xc658..84RetailNO$3.8K+16%
0xc021..a8 MMYES$3.2K-7%
0xa4b3..b8RetailYES$2.9K-5%
0x5188..04MMYES$2.3K-4%
0xeec5..feRetailYES$1.5K-5%
See all 87 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

87% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$7,252 on $515.3K capital deployed (avg -1.4%).

YES positions
87% in profit
NO positions
13% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform Last YES Price Volume Final
Polymarket 78c $40.5M 100c
AI Consensus 80c ✓ matched