Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jul 29, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $25.9M

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Q: How did 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 29, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 29

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 5 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	25c	50%
Compound Signal	NO	30c	40%
Claude Analysis	NO	13c	70%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	16c	72%
Kimi Macro	NO	16c	65%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 20c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

6 Active Wallets on This Market

Dominant capital sits on NO (rate hold), the base-rate-correct position, but the smart-money edge is entirely on the YES side—every YES entry near 5-9c is in profit while most NO entries are underwater. This split signals a small but well-timed cohort positioning for a 25 bps hike surprise, though NO's size majority still frames a hold as the consensus outcome.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde7b..4b	Retail	YES	$93.8K	+37%
This Market Entered at 12c → now 50c (+37%), $93.8K on YES Activity · 7 events · Jul 13 → Jul 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 13BUYYES30+$2,956$2,956 Jul 14BUYYES8+$1,527$2,349 Jul 20BUYYES7+$10,297$12,241 Jul 21BUYYES10+$18,091$36,029 Jul 22BUYYES20+$10,830$83,276 Jul 23BUYYES26+$2,342$108,408 Jul 24BUYYES24+$7,147$105,871 Realized— Unrealized+$40,594 Total Profit+$40,594 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1662 trades).
0xeb6f..f0	Retail	YES	$28.1K	+30%
This Market Entered at 10c → now 50c (+30%), $28.1K on YES Activity · 25 events · Jun 17 → Jul 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 17BUYYES16+$222$222 Jun 17SELLYES17−$829$0 Jun 18BUYYES23+$2$2 Jun 18SELLYES17−$1,240$0 Jun 19SELLYES26−$3$0 Jul 06BUYYES12+$91$91 Jul 07SELLYES15−$7$102 Jul 08BUYYES22+$78$230 Jul 08SELLYES21−$76$146 Jul 10BUYYES23+$1,280$1,440 Jul 12BUYYES21+$417$1,706 Jul 13BUYYES30+$1,528$3,949 Jul 14BUYYES6+$2,006$2,876 Jul 14SELLYES9−$2,094$2,010 Jul 15SELLYES6−$633$644 Jul 17BUYYES5+$2$550 Jul 18SELLYES5−$470$47 Jul 19BUYYES5+$49$97 Jul 20BUYYES6+$2,761$2,884 Jul 20SELLYES7−$4,435$0 Jul 21BUYYES8+$10,879$10,883 Jul 21SELLYES12−$102$16,682 Jul 22BUYYES16+$3,754$25,054 Jul 23BUYYES25+$1,397$41,353 Jul 23SELLYES27−$29$44,739 Realized−$1,679 Unrealized+$15,289 Total Profit+$13,610 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1290 trades).
0x0aae..1c	Retail	NO	$10.2K	-1%
This Market Entered at 80c → now 50c (-1%), $10.2K on NO Activity · 2 events · Jul 12 → Jul 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 12BUYNO80+$10,304$10,304 Jul 13SELLNO74−$24$9,516 Realized−$2 Unrealized−$71 Total Profit−$73 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1302 trades).
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$3.7K	+329%
This Market Entered at 5c → now 50c (+329%), $3.7K on YES Activity · 2 events · Jul 13 → Jul 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 13BUYYES22+$178$178 Jul 18BUYYES5+$793$831 Realized— Unrealized+$2,733 Total Profit+$2,733 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1242) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xa4b3..b8	Retail	NO	$2.1K	-8%
This Market Entered at 85c → now 50c (-8%), $2.1K on NO Activity · 6 events · Jun 29 → Jul 16 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 29BUYNO82+$314$314 Jul 02SELLNO90−$252$91 Jul 06BUYNO85+$4,250$4,336 Jul 11SELLNO79−$1,548$2,492 Jul 13SELLNO66−$364$1,699 Jul 16BUYNO96+$5$2,495 Realized−$199 Unrealized−$150 Total Profit−$349 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1436 trades).
0x0c0e..4e	MM	NO	$1.2K	-15%
This Market Entered at 93c → now 50c (-15%), $1.2K on NO Activity · 2 events · Jul 15 → Jul 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 15BUYNO93+$1,135$1,135 Jul 20BUYNO93+$259$1,398 Realized— Unrealized−$209 Total Profit−$209 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1334) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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10% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$122,483 on $139.0K capital deployed (avg -88.1%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

10% in profit

YES positions

90% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	21c	$25.9M	0c
AI Consensus	20c	—	✓ matched

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