Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?'?

As of July 2026, prediction markets price this at 20% YES on Polymarket with $290K in total trading volume.

80c

YES

20c

Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (20% YES).

Down from 42% to 20% since 2026-05-02 (-22pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $290K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 20c YES with $290K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 162 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

Full AI Analysis Available on PRO Markets

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models and tracks 166 smart money wallets. Get BUY/SELL verdicts, entry targets, wallet positions, and P&L data.

Deep Analysis — Crypto Markets

These Crypto markets have full AI verdicts, smart money tracking, and 5-model analysis:

See all 107 analyzed markets →

Related Markets

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

As of July 2026, Polymarket prices this at 20% YES with $290K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.