AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned exclusively short at near-certainty (91c NO), treating parliamentary continuity as the base case rather than a contested outcome. The 91c entry signals the tracked wallet viewed dissolution as a low-probability tail event from the start, and the market's collapse to 6c confirms that directional read.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xe841..59 | Smart | NO | $2.1K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$156 on $2.1K capital deployed (avg +7.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $111.6K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |