As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Trump out as President before 2027?” at 6% YES with $11.5M traded. 4 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
At 6% YES versus 94% NO, markets see almost no chance Trump leaves office before 2027.
The market pricing whether Trump exits office before Jan 1, 2027 sits at 6% YES / 94% NO, with Polymarket logging $11.37M in volume, $388.31K liquidity, and $3.44M open interest as of the latest sync. The question of whether Trump could be out as president gained fresh attention after veteran Democratic strategist James Carville predicted the president would resign in the spring of 2027, citing an alleged decline in his physical and emotional condition. Carville tied that exit to an anticipated midterm reckoning, floating a date near April 15, 2027 — though he stressed it was a forecast, not confirmed information about Trump's health or plans. [CryptoSlate, Sep 3]
The near-term catalysts cited by traders are narrow: a sudden health crisis, a voluntary resignation, or legislative action tied to executive behavior around the US-Iran ceasefire. Analysts note any impeachment-inspired vote would likely need to move before the end of 2026, while the issue remains in the news cycle. One structural check on that path is Trump's demonstrated ability to intervene in GOP primaries, helping defeat several Republican incumbents who bucked his legislative agenda — a factor some argue could soften the midterm blow and reduce appetite for removal legislation. [Covers, Aug 24]
For Trump to be out as president before 2027, either a resignation or a completed removal would have to clear procedural hurdles a divided Congress has shown little willingness to start. History also complicates the resignation thesis: polling leads did not hold in 2024, when Harris led national surveys before Trump swept key battleground states. With no committee vote, filing deadline, or formal removal proceeding currently scheduled, the operative timeline now points to the midterm elections as the next real inflection point for any early-exit scenario. [The Hill, Jun 18]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on NO, fair value 9c vs market 6c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 6c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 96c | 88% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 95c | 90% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
7 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 90% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 91c — market prices it at 94c. 3-point gap supports YES.
Four tracked wallets are exclusively positioned on NO, entering at 84c-94c, signaling conviction that Trump will remain president through 2026. Their profitable positioning and absence of YES entries suggest smart money sees the 6c YES as overpriced relative to fundamentals. This one-sided flow reinforces downward pressure on YES and supports NO near its current level.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | Smart | NO | $52.8K | +10% | |
| 0x4818..0b | Smart | NO | $2.9K | +12% | |
| 0x7e30..50 | Smart | NO | $1.3K | +0% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $6.1K | +6% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit with entries between 84c and 94c, while every YES position is underwater at the current 6c price. This asymmetry creates strong price support for NO, as profitable holders have little incentive to exit and YES buyers face steep negative carry. The 6c YES price reflects a market-implied ~6% probability of Trump leaving office before 2027.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $11.5M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 9c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $11.5M |
| Our Model | 9c | — |