Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?” at 6% YES with $3.1M traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

What’s Happening

The race for Israel’s next prime minister has tightened into a three-way contest ahead of the October 2026 election, with former premier Naftali Bennett currently holding a 6% probability in political markets despite a high-profile alliance with opposition leader Yair Lapid. The pair launched their joint "Together" (B’Yachad) party in late April, but recent polling shows the bloc has failed to gain traction against Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and the National Unity party led by Gadi Eisenkot. A Haaretz analysis from August 12 noted that Bennett has "lost his edge," with internal party friction and a crowded center-right field diluting his appeal. The election, now expected to take place in October 2026, will be the first since the October 7, 2023 attacks, and security policy has dominated the campaign agenda [Haaretz, Aug 12].

Bennett’s campaign has centered on a hardline deterrence doctrine, with the former prime minister stating on August 19 that attacks from Iranian proxies should be treated as if they came from Iran directly. Speaking at a Tel Aviv policy conference, Bennett and Lapid pledged to pursue a "hardline deterrence policy" against Tehran while simultaneously rebuilding ties with American liberals and the European Union. This dual-track approach has drawn criticism from both flanks: EU officials have signaled frustration with any Israeli government that continues settlement expansion, while domestic hawks view Bennett’s outreach to Washington and Brussels as a weakness. The Atlantic Council reported on July 13 that the Bennett-Lapid reunion was "the opening twist" of the campaign, but noted that the narrow window for resetting regional strategy via the Abraham Accords may close if Netanyahu forms a more hardline coalition [Atlantic Council, Jul 13].

Procedural hurdles remain significant for Bennett’s path to the premiership. The Knesset’s election committee has set a September 2026 deadline for final party list submissions, and Bennett’s B’Yachad must clear the 3.25% electoral threshold independently if the alliance with Lapid’s Yesh Atid fractures. Recent August 2026 polling from Israeli channels shows the joint list at roughly 18-20 seats, far behind Likud’s projected 28-30 and Eisenkot’s 22-24. A Euobserver report from August 28 noted that no major candidate, including Bennett, backs a Palestinian state, which has led the EU to pursue "reforms" rather than direct pressure—a dynamic that could shape coalition negotiations after the vote. With the election now roughly eight weeks away, Bennett’s window to close the gap is narrowing, and his 6% probability reflects both polling deficits and the difficulty of forming a coalition without Arab or ultra-Orthodox support [Euobserver, Aug 28].

Traded on Polymarket — $3.1M Volume