Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel. Currently, markets are divided (40% YES, 60% NO). Why polarization, not Iran or Hamas, will decide Israel's next election - analysis.

What’s Happening

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s bid to return to office faces a deeply fragmented political landscape as Israel prepares for its next national election. Bennett, who leads the Together slate alongside Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, has positioned himself as a centrist alternative to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but faces a crowded field of rivals. On May 19, 2026, MK Avigdor Liberman declared his own ambition to become prime minister, even though his Yisrael Beytenu party polls at just nine seats in the 120-seat Knesset, compared to Together’s projected 24 seats. Liberman’s announcement underscores the difficulty Bennett faces in consolidating a broad anti-Netanyahu coalition, as smaller parties pursue their own leadership ambitions rather than rally behind a single challenger. [Times of Israel, May 19]

The election campaign is being shaped by deep polarization and security crises, which directly affect the viability of the naftali bennett next prime minister of israel scenario. Bennett has aggressively attacked Netanyahu’s government over its handling of the ongoing war and drone threats from the north. In a video message filmed on the northern border on May 18, 2026, Bennett accused the Netanyahu government of “stabbing troops in the back” by failing to address security gaps. Meanwhile, a May 21, 2026 analysis from The Jerusalem Post noted that the election will be decided by polarization rather than by foreign policy issues like Iran or Hamas, making it harder for Bennett to break through with a message of unity. The Together party’s inaugural conference, held recently, was intended to project momentum, but the broader political environment remains volatile. [Times of Israel, May 18] [Jerusalem Post, May 21]

Looking ahead, Bennett’s path to the premiership depends on his ability to outmaneuver Netanyahu in a deeply polarized electorate and to fend off challenges from both the far-right and secularist camps. A key procedural milestone will be the finalization of party slates and the official election date, which is expected to be set by the Knesset in the coming weeks. Bennett’s recent secret trip to Abu Dhabi, which prompted Netanyahu to rush to reveal his own UAE visit, highlights the high-stakes diplomatic maneuvering that could influence voter perceptions. However, with Itamar Ben-Gvir’s provocations continuing to dominate headlines and Liberman splitting the secular vote, the naftali bennett next prime minister of israel outcome remains uncertain. The election will likely hinge on turnout among centrist and center-left voters, who have shown wavering enthusiasm in recent polls. [Jerusalem Post, May 18] [The Atlantic, May 22]

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