AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 16c |
68%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 7c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 88c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $2.4K | +7% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$315 on $2.4K capital deployed (avg +13.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $586.2K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 7c | — | ✓ matched |